Basic DSPy RAG tutorial on DataGrapple blog posts

Disclaimer: The experiments detailed below are conducted independently and are not related to my current employment. They represent personal endeavors undertaken during my free time, primarily over weekends, with the aim of staying informed about the latest technological developments in the field of large language models. Nothing contained within this blog post should be construed as financial advice or an encouragement to engage in investment activities. The insights derived from the large language models (LLMs) are merely restatements of publicly available information sourced from DataGrapple blogs. These blogs primarily focus on describing the current state of the credit default swap (CDS) market and do not endeavor to predict future market movements.

This blog is more a note to self for experimenting further with DSPy (arXiv, GitHub) than a pedagogical or original intro to the framework. It essentially follows this weaviate tutorial with small adaptations, notably removing the weaviate part of it, and replacing their retrieval module by a very basic local search in the embeddings. I typically experiment against the jargon-heavy DataGrapple blog posts written by French portfolio managers. It serves as a good ‘stress test’ for general-purpose NLP tools.

tl;dr The DSPy framework helps optimizing the prompts to obtain a better and more focused RAG.

We go automatically from the generic:

Answer questions based on the context.

---

Follow the following format.

Context: may contain relevant facts
Question: ${question}
Reasoning: Let's think step by step in order to ${produce the answer}. We ...
Answer: ${answer}

---

to:

Based on the provided business and financial contexts, provide detailed and specific answers that fully address the posed questions, drawing explicitly from the information given.

---

Follow the following format.

Context: may contain relevant facts
Question: ${question}
Reasoning: Let's think step by step in order to ${produce the answer}. We ...
Answer: ${answer}

---

which is a prompt tailored to our specific corpus.

DSPy RAG tutorial

First, install DSPy.

!pip install dspy-ai

Download a corpus of blogs against which we can look for precise answers.

!wget https://sp500-histo.s3.ap-southeast-1.amazonaws.com/blogs
import os
import pickle
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import dspy
from openai import OpenAI
from sklearn.metrics.pairwise import cosine_similarity
from tqdm import tqdm


os.environ['OPENAI_API_KEY'] = YOUR_OWN_OPENAI_API_KEY


client = OpenAI()
with open('blogs', 'rb') as f:
    blogs = pickle.load(f)
len(blogs)
1238
blogs[0]
{'title': 'That Is A Big Deal',
 'author': 'jbchevrel',
 'date': '2019-04-12',
 'link': 'https://www.datagrapple.com/Blog/Show/12272/that-is-a-big-deal.html',
 'content': 'In a decently risk-on session (CDX IG -2.8 CDX HY -8.9 SPX @ 2,900), the CDS of Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (APC) outperformed the broader market, tightening by c65bp. Bonds are also 75-100bp tighter. That is because the oil giant Chevron Corp. (CVX) agreed to buy APC. The equity is valued $33B, which will be paid in stocks and cash (75/25: 0.3869 CVX shares and $16.25 in cash per APC share). That is a 39% premium therefore APC share soared towards the offer price (+23% on day). The transaction is expected to close in 2H19. CVX management doesn’t expect any regulatory issues. From a credit standpoint, CVX will assume $15B net debt from APC, making APC EV c$50B. CVX will issue 200M shares and pay $8B in cash. A very tight name, CVX widened 6bp to 33bp mid, making the APC/CVX spread tighten 71bp, from +70bp to -1bp! CVX is not really a story for credit. Indeed, CVX has c$9.4B cash on hand and past experience proves that it generates $8B+ FCF per year at $50-55/bbl crude (vs now WTI $64), so it looks unlikely that they will fund the non-share cash part (c$8B) with debt. And even in the unlikely event it would do that, the combined leverage would be somewhere around 1x. Adding to this point, the news that 1/ CVX expects to realize $2B synergies (proceeds partly used for debt reduction) 2/ CVX plans to sell $15-20bn of assets in 2020-2022 confirms that CVX credit is not in trouble anytime soon. Therefore the consensus expects CVX to keep its current rating (AA/Aa2), while APC will converge to CVX from its Ba1/BBB, although we don’t know if CVX will explicitly guarantee them. CVX aside, this news dragged all the US/Canada IG energy tighter, with Hess -22 Devon -15 Encana -13, partly because the market knew APC was a target and consolidation was expected. This acquisition shows the importance of size in this business, where the biggest and the most diversified players do well. '}

We can embed the blogs using the text-embedding-3-small model.

# client = OpenAI()

# embeddings = []
# for blog in tqdm(blogs):
#   content = blog["content"]
#   emb = client.embeddings.create(input=content, model="text-embedding-3-small").data[0].embedding

#   embeddings.append([
#       blog["title"],
#       blog["author"],
#       blog["date"],
#       blog["link"],
#       content,
#       emb])

#   df_embeddings = pd.DataFrame(
#     embeddings,
#     columns=["title", "author", "date", "link", "content", "embedding"]
#   )

# df_embeddings.to_parquet("dg_blogs_with_openai_text-embedding-3-small_embeddings.parquet")

No need to recompute the embeddings again and again. Let’s fetch them from s3.

!wget https://sp500-histo.s3.ap-southeast-1.amazonaws.com/dg_blogs_with_openai_text-embedding-3-small_embeddings.parquet
df_embeddings = pd.read_parquet("dg_blogs_with_openai_text-embedding-3-small_embeddings.parquet")
df_embeddings
title author date link content embedding
0 That Is A Big Deal jbchevrel 2019-04-12 https://www.datagrapple.com/Blog/Show/12272/th... In a decently risk-on session (CDX IG -2.8 CDX... [0.023862849920988083, -0.02890099585056305, 0...
1 Only Game In Town jbchevrel 2019-04-11 https://www.datagrapple.com/Blog/Show/12271/on... Today, the ECB pretty much dictated the price ... [-0.0019143268000334501, 0.014265304431319237,...
2 Impairment Bites jbchevrel 2019-04-10 https://www.datagrapple.com/Blog/Show/12270/im... HEMA (short for 4 unpronounceable Dutch words)... [-0.012396507896482944, 0.0550399050116539, 0....
3 On The Red jbchevrel 2019-04-09 https://www.datagrapple.com/Blog/Show/12269/on... Today the 5y CDS of Crown Resorts Ltd (CWNAU) ... [-0.031644079834222794, 0.004807306919246912, ...
4 Shipping Names Rocked jbchevrel 2019-04-08 https://www.datagrapple.com/Blog/Show/12268/sh... Today CMA CGM (CMACG) and Hapag-Lloyd AG (HPLG... [0.01699497364461422, 0.003022479824721813, 0....
... ... ... ... ... ... ...
1233 PostNL (TNTNA) Delivers Good News HCM 2013-12-05 https://www.datagrapple.com/Blog/Show/10/postn... This is the first of our daily comment, a colu... [0.0008119812700897455, 0.026372777298092842, ...
1234 High Trading Activity at the End of 2013 HCM 2013-12-04 https://www.datagrapple.com/Blog/Show/2/high-t... \r\nThe brown area chart tracks the evolution ... [0.020368456840515137, 0.0014192602830007672, ...
1235 European Banks 2013: UCGIM vs STANLN HCM 2013-12-04 https://www.datagrapple.com/Blog/Show/3/europe... Grapple selection lets the user browse with a... [-0.020505966618657112, 0.008376846089959145, ...
1236 Heinz (HNZ) – Too Hot for IG HCM 2013-12-04 https://www.datagrapple.com/Blog/Show/5/heinz-... This view gives a representation of the intens... [-0.004270065575838089, -0.009213356301188469,...
1237 Monthly CDS Report HCM 2013-11-29 https://www.datagrapple.com/Blog/Show/1/monthl... Over the last month, the European CDS market h... [-0.00585611816495657, 0.008636543527245522, 0...

1238 rows × 6 columns

A bit useless, but suggested by Google Colab AI:

# generated by google colab ai
from matplotlib import pyplot as plt
import seaborn as sns
df_embeddings.groupby('author').size().plot(kind='barh', color=sns.palettes.mpl_palette('Dark2'))
plt.gca().spines[['top', 'right',]].set_visible(False)

Blog authors

embedding_matrix = np.stack(df_embeddings['embedding'].apply(np.array))
embedding_matrix.shape
(1238, 1536)

Basic retriever ‘module’

def embed_text(text):
    response = client.embeddings.create(
        input=text,
        model="text-embedding-3-small")
    return response.data[0].embedding

# the most naive and simple retriever
def retrieve(query, k=5):
    query_embedding = embed_text(query)
    scores = cosine_similarity(np.array(query_embedding).reshape(1, -1), embedding_matrix)
    top_idx = scores.argsort()[0][::-1][:k]
    return df_embeddings.iloc[top_idx]['content'].values.tolist()
retrieved_blogs = retrieve("What business did Conagra Brands Inc. spin off on November 9, 2016?")

retrieved_blogs
['CAG ( Conagra Brands Inc. )  was a 12BUSD revenues food US company based in Chicago. On November 9, 2016, the company completed the spin-off of Lamb Weston - essentially its frozen potato fries  business (a 4BUSD revenue business). French fries and any sort of fried potatoes is a sound investment. Half of the debt of Conagra was pushed to the new company LW (( Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. ). From a BBB- company, the new Conagra is now BBB while  Lamb Weston is a BB. According to last Friday’s ISDA determination committee, a CDS holder having 1MUSD protection on CAG is now having 500k on new CAG and 500k on LW.  New CAG is indicated 20bps tighter while LW is 40bps wider. CAG is also a member of the investment grade credit indices in the US, the CDX.IG, in all series up to the latest the series 27. All credit indices members will also be split and will have 126 reference entities, CAG and LW being half weighted. This credit event is a source of large operations for credit derivatives trade processing in the next days.\n\nMeanwhile, the broader credit market went through a slow session with European investment grade risk being the weakest part of the investment spectrum.\n',
 'Overnight 3G Capital Partners and Berkshire Hathaway have offered to merge Kraft Foods Group with HNZ (HJ Heinz Company) to create The Kraft Heinz Co. 3G and Berkshire will own 51% on the new company, while existing Kraft shareholders will get 49% and a $16.5 special dividend. Importantly for the CDS market, no new debt will be issued and the management announced that they are committed to maintaining an investment grade rating going forward. The operation is effectively removing the LBO risk which was overhanging on the food and beverage sector as 3G now appears committed (at least in the medium term). So entire complex traded better today, but the most spectacular move was seen in HNZ’s 5 year CDS which gapped 119bps to 64bps as investors expect it to be a dead box going forward.',
 'Back in March, METFNL ( Metro AG ) announced that it would proceed with a demerger, in order to separate its food business (Food Co) from  its Consumer Electronics business (CE Co). METFNL held a conference call on the 6th September to give further details regarding the operation. All the financial liabilities of the group including bonds will be assumed by Food Co. Pension liabilities will be allocated 40% to Food Co and 60% to CE Co. Lease obligations will be 60% and 40%, and cash balances 75% and 25% respectively. Even though METFNL’s management expects both companies to maintain an investment grade rating after the spin-off, there won’t be any capital increase. That means that Food Co, due to the high debt load, will have at best weak credit metrics for its rating category and will be left with very limited financial leeway. Moody’s is understood to effectively ask the management to do more if Food Co is to be eligible for IG rating. That is probably why METFNL which will reference Food Co going forward has underperformed its peers during the last week. \nMeanwhile, the broader credit market spent another day looking at US interest rates. It dithered all session, and was unable to decide whether to go wider or tighter. Credit indices traded in a range (328/335 for iTraxx Crossover and 69/72 for iTraxx Main) and eventually closed bang in the middle of it.\n',
 'The failings of the food industry are in the spotlight again. This morning, ITV News and the Guardian have published a report that claims to have uncovered a series of safety breaches at the poultry plants of 2 Sisters Food Group (2SFG). The allegations involve tampering slaughter date of poultry being processed at sites that supply retailers including Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Marks & Spencer, Aldi and Lidl. The latters all said they would launch enquiries. Several of them decided to remove from their shelves products coming from the incriminated sites without further ado and have vowed to suspend their relationship with the firm until the investigation has concluded. 2SFG was founded in 1993 and now produces one third of all the poultry products consumed in the UK, and had revenues of £3.1Bln in 2016. Investors took the matter very seriously and parent company BOPRLN (Boparan Finance Plc) was under severe pressure as soon as the reports came out. Its 5-year risk premium jumped 169bps to 738bps. That is its widest level since it joined iTraxx Crossover 3 years ago.',
 'In an environment which has been supportive for credit over the last 12 months, a few names have been trading wider, especially in the Consumer Non-Cyclical sector. Releveraging seems to be on the agenda of a few companies through different channels. For instance, on the one hand, DGX ( Quest Diagnostics Inc) experienced weak trading conditions and decided to support its share price through share buy-backs. On the other hand, Campbell Soup (Campbell Soup Company) has been the subject of takeover speculations. Out of the money options on the stock experienced unusually high volumes recently and 5 year protection has been pushed aggressively wider. LBO could be back in people’s mind if they think systemic risks are receding.']

The top blog post from the retriever is indeed the one we need to answer the question:

retrieved_blogs[0]
'CAG ( Conagra Brands Inc. )  was a 12BUSD revenues food US company based in Chicago. On November 9, 2016, the company completed the spin-off of Lamb Weston - essentially its frozen potato fries  business (a 4BUSD revenue business). French fries and any sort of fried potatoes is a sound investment. Half of the debt of Conagra was pushed to the new company LW (( Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. ). From a BBB- company, the new Conagra is now BBB while  Lamb Weston is a BB. According to last Friday’s ISDA determination committee, a CDS holder having 1MUSD protection on CAG is now having 500k on new CAG and 500k on LW.  New CAG is indicated 20bps tighter while LW is 40bps wider. CAG is also a member of the investment grade credit indices in the US, the CDX.IG, in all series up to the latest the series 27. All credit indices members will also be split and will have 126 reference entities, CAG and LW being half weighted. This credit event is a source of large operations for credit derivatives trade processing in the next days.\n\nMeanwhile, the broader credit market went through a slow session with European investment grade risk being the weakest part of the investment spectrum.\n'

Definition of training, validation, and testing sets

From these blogs, we can extract (questions, answers), manually or with the help of a LLM.

Note that we won’t use the answers listed here to supervise the system, or evaluate the RAG answers. They are just there to satisfy curiosity.

questions_and_answers = [
    {"question": "What business did Conagra Brands Inc. spin off on November 9, 2016?",
     "answer": "Conagra completed the spin-off of Lamb Weston, which is primarily focused on the frozen potato fries business."},
    {"question": "How much of Conagra's debt was transferred to Lamb Weston after the spin-off?",
     "answer": "Half of Conagra’s debt was transferred to Lamb Weston."},
    {"question": "What was the revenue size of the spun-off business, Lamb Weston?",
     "answer": "Lamb Weston had revenues of $4 billion USD."},
    {"question": "What were the credit ratings for Conagra and Lamb Weston after the spin-off?",
     "answer": "After the spin-off, Conagra's credit rating was upgraded to BBB, and Lamb Weston's rating was BB."},
    {"question": "According to the ISDA determination committee, how was the CDS protection split between Conagra and Lamb Weston?",
     "answer": "A CDS holder who had $1 million USD protection on Conagra now has $500,000 on the new Conagra and $500,000 on Lamb Weston."},
    {"question": "What false information was circulated about VINCI?",
     "answer": "The false information claimed that VINCI had fired its finance chief amid irregularities and had discovered accounting errors."},
    {"question": "What was the market reaction when the false news about VINCI was released?",
     "answer": "The stock of VINCI plunged 18%, wiping more than €6 billion off its market capitalisation."},
    {"question": "How did VINCI's stock recover after the false report?",
     "answer": "The stock recovered most of its loss after the report was confirmed to be false."},
    {"question": "What was the impact on VINCI's 5-year risk premium following the incident?",
     "answer": "VINCI’s 5-year risk premium remained stable all day long, a couple of basis points tighter than the previous day's close at 58 bps."},
    {"question": "What did QUIBB's management confirm during their call with analysts?",
     "answer": "During their call with analysts, QUIBB's management stuck to their original plan regarding the rollout of the Burger King restaurants for 2017."},
    {"question": "What details did Banca Monte dei Paschi provide about their debt for equity exchange?",
     "answer": "anca Monte dei Paschi announced that they plan to offer equity worth between 85% and 100% of face value to the holders of their €4.3 billion outstanding subordinated bonds."},
    {"question": "What is the total capital increase planned by Banca Monte dei Paschi before the end of the year?",
     "answer": "Banca Monte dei Paschi has planned a total capital increase of €5 billion before the end of the year."},
    {"question": "What is the intended purpose of the capital increase by Banca Monte dei Paschi?",
     "answer": "The capital increase is instrumental in the process that should lead to the deconsolidation of their almost €28 billion portfolio of non-performing loans."},
    {"question": "How did the market react to the confidence in the success of Banca Monte dei Paschi's deal?",
     "answer": "Renewed confidence in the deal led investors to tighten MONTE’s 5-year risk premium by 12 bps to 392 bps, benefiting the whole Italian complex which outperformed other members of the European financial sector."},
    {"question": "What specific event impacted the credit of Intrum Justitia and its competitor Lindorff AB?",
     "answer": "ntrum Justitia, a Swedish debt collecting company, announced the acquisition of Lindorff AB, one of their Norwegian competitors. As a result, Lindorff’s debt will be refinanced, and CDS referencing LINDOR (Lock Lower Holding AS) will likely become orphaned."},
    {"question": "What factors are crucial in the business of car rental according to the blog?",
     "answer": "In the car rental business, maintaining a high utilization rate of the fleet and managing the sale of cars no longer wanted for customer use are crucial. Depreciation is highlighted as the highest cost in the industry."},
    {"question": "What unexpected information did Hertz report about their third-quarter earnings?",
     "answer": "Hertz reported third-quarter profits that badly trailed analysts’ estimates, attributing the shortfall to a decline in revenue and a drop in the values of its cars, which was unexpected and shocking to investors."},
    {"question": "What are Hertz’s new forecasts for Ebitda, and what could be the potential impact on its leverage?",
     "answer": "Hertz now forecasts an Ebitda of $575 million to $625 million for the year, which may push its leverage to more than 5 times by the end of the year. Moody’s indicated that such a leverage level could pressure Hertz's rating."},
    {"question": "What is noted about the investment opportunities in distress credits?",
     "answer": "Distress credits can offer a lot of convexity to investors, providing positive convexity for once, which suggests significant potential for gains as conditions improve."},
    {"question": "What external factors have influenced the perception of AK Steel's stock?",
     "answer": "The increase in iron ore prices by more than 50% this year, along with Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton's critical stance on China’s trade practices, have led equity investors to view AK Steel's stock as a call on the US steel recovery."},
    {"question": "What financial move did AK Steel Holding Corporation recently make regarding its shares?",
     "answer": "AK Steel Holding Corporation is issuing 52 million shares, which amounts to 25% of its market capitalization, to repay its outstanding borrowing under its asset-based revolver facility."},
    {"question": "What decision did the ISDA Determination Committee make regarding NSINO's recent debt management action?",
     "answer": "The ISDA Determination Committee decided on Friday, 22nd April, that NSINO’s action of extending bond maturities amounted to a restructuring credit event."},
    {"question": "What options do investors who have bought protection on NSINO's CDS have following the ISDA's decision?",
     "answer": "Investors who have bought protection on NSINO will have the opportunity to trigger their CDS contracts until the auction is held, though they are not obliged to do so."},
    {"question": "What changes occurred to NSINO's position in credit indices following the ISDA's decision?",
     "answer": "Following the ISDA's decision, NSINO has been spun off from all the credit indices to which it previously belonged."},
    {"question": "How has the restructuring event affected an investor with a position in iTraxx Crossover Series 23 involving NSINO?",
     "answer": "An investor (referred to as Investor X) who had a €74 million position in iTraxx Crossover Series 23 on Friday now has a €73 million position in the same series that no longer includes NSINO, along with a separate €1 million position on NSINO."},
    {"question": "What sectors does NXP Semiconductors NV primarily supply chips for?",
     "answer": "NXP Semiconductors is a leading chip supplier for smartphones and the auto industry, particularly after its acquisition of Freescale Semiconductor."},
    {"question": "What are some of the applications of NXP's chips in the auto industry?",
     "answer": "NXP's chips are used in a range of applications within the auto industry, including advanced driver assistance systems, infotainment, and in-vehicle networking between different car systems."},
    {"question": "How did NXP's Q1 2016 earnings report compare to analysts' expectations?",
     "answer": "NXP's Q1 2016 earnings report was in line with analysts' expectations, which surprised investors given the context."},
    {"question": "What did NXP's management say about the demand and market conditions during their earnings report?",
     "answer": "NXP's management mentioned that while overall demand continues to be subdued, the headwinds experienced last year should begin to subside in the coming quarter."},
    {"question": "What was NXP's revenue and gross margin outlook for Q2, and how did it compare to the consensus estimates?",
     "answer": "For Q2, NXP projected revenues of $2.3 to $2.4 billion and a gross margin of 49.5% to 50.5%, which was slightly ahead of the consensus estimates of $2.3 billion in revenue and a 49.8% gross margin."},
    {"question": "What steps has Ball taken to win regulatory approval for its acquisition of Rexam?",
     "answer": "To win regulatory approval, Ball announced that it had agreed with Rexam to sell plants in Brazil and Europe, along with innovation and support functions in Brazil, Britain, Germany, Switzerland, and the United States."},
    {"question": "Who is acquiring the assets divested by Ball and Rexam, and what is the significance of this acquisition?",
     "answer": "Ardagh Packaging (ARGID) is acquiring the divested assets, which is significant as it allows ARGID to acquire assets with combined revenues of around $3 billion."},
    {"question": "Why did ARGID's risk premium not participate in the recent rally of the iTraxx Crossover index?",
     "answer": "ARGID's risk premium did not rally with the iTraxx Crossover due to rumors that it was the leading bidder for the Ball-Rexam assets, which likely concerned investors about potential increased leverage."},
    {"question": "How did the market react to the announcement regarding ARGID's involvement in the Ball-Rexam deal?",
     "answer": "On the day of the announcement, investors marked ARGID’s 5-year CDS 36 basis points wider to 452 bps, reflecting concerns over the increased leverage from the acquisition."},
    {"question": "What adjustments did Alcoa Inc make to its global aluminum demand forecast for 2016?",
     "answer": "Alcoa Inc lowered its forecast for global aluminum demand in 2016, expecting a 5% increase, down from a previously projected 6% increase."},
    {"question": "How did Alcoa Inc revise its market deficit projection for 2016?",
     "answer": "Alcoa Inc decreased its market deficit projection for 2016 to a deficit of 1.1 million metric tons from 1.2 million metric tons estimated three months ago."},
    {"question": "What significant financial move did ArcelorMittal SA announce?",
     "answer": "ArcelorMittal SA announced they will buy back bonds after raising $3 billion earlier in the year through a rights issue. They plan to repurchase €1 billion of notes maturing in November 2017, €500 million due in March 2018, and $1.5 billion of securities maturing in June 2018."},
    {"question": "At what levels did ArcelorMittal SA propose to buy back their bonds, and how was this received?",
     "answer": "ArcelorMittal SA proposed to buy back their bonds at levels substantially above those at which they were trading in the secondary market, which puzzled some observers considering the already tight risk premia of the company."},
    {"question": "How did investors react to ArcelorMittal's bond buyback announcement?",
     "answer": "Investors reacted positively to the bond buyback announcement, sending the 5-year CDS of ArcelorMittal to its tightest level (584 bps) since the March roll."},
    {"question": "Who owns and manages OTE (Hellenic Telecommunications Organisation SA)?",
     "answer": "OTE is 40% owned and managed by Deutsche Telekom AG (DT) from Germany."},
     {"question": "What event influenced investor sentiment positively despite OTE's earnings?",
     "answer": "Investor sentiment was positively influenced by the Eurogroup meeting, where debt relief options for Greece were discussed earlier than expected."},
    {"question": "How did the positive developments at the Eurogroup meeting affect OTE’s financial market indicators?",
     "answer": "The positive tone at the Eurogroup meeting led to OTE’s 5-year risk premium tightening by 35 basis points to 431 bps."},
    {"question": "What allegations are connected to the investigation surrounding Ohio House Bill 6?",
     "answer": "The investigation involves accusations of bribery related to the passage of Ohio House Bill 6, with suggestions that illicit payments could have been as high as $60 million."},
    {"question": "What were the consequences for FirstEnergy's leadership following the federal corruption scandal?",
     "answer": "Following a board review triggered by the federal corruption scandal, FirstEnergy fired CEO Jones and other senior executives for violating the company’s policies and its code of conduct. Steven Strah was appointed as the acting CEO."},
    {"question": "What financial operations were highlighted for FirstEnergy in 2019?",
     "answer": "In 2019, FirstEnergy increased its cash reserves by approximately 60% or $250 million. It operationally generated over $2.47 billion, generated an additional $656 million from financing, and invested about $2.87 billion."},
    {"question": "How did the market react to Novafives' third-quarter performance and outlook?",
     "answer": "The company’s bonds were heavily punished, indicated approximately 6 points lower on the day, on top of already losing about 10 points since mid-November."},
    {"question": "What specific issues did Novafives report in their third-quarter results?",
     "answer": "Novafives reported weak third-quarter results with covenant net leverage increasing to 5.8 times, up from 4.8 in the second quarter."},
    {"question": "What financial action did Vue International (VUECIN) take as December approaches?",
     "answer": "Vue International decided to issue a 7-year facility, consisting of two tranches: one in euros amounting to roughly €600 million and one in GBP amounting to £300 million."},
    {"question": "What are the intended uses of the proceeds from Vue International's new term loan?",
     "answer": "The proceeds from the term loan will be used to finance the acquisition of Cinestar and its new site capital expenditures, as well as to refinance existing debt."},
    {"question": "What will happen to VUECIN’s existing debt instruments as a result of the new term loan?",
     "answer": "Vue International’s existing senior secured floating rate notes in euros and senior secured notes in sterling will be entirely taken out."},
    {"question": "How will the new debt issuance affect the deliverables into VUECIN’s CDS contracts?",
     "answer": "Following the issuance, only loans will be deliverable into CDS contracts going forward."},
    {"question": "What was the impact on VUECIN’s leverage due to the new financing?",
     "answer": "Despite the new financing, the leverage is expected to remain flat at 5.5x."},
    {"question": "Why is BATSLN particularly vulnerable to the FDA’s potential regulation on menthol cigarettes?",
     "answer": "BATSLN is particularly vulnerable because it produces Newport, the best-selling brand of menthol cigarettes in the US, and menthol cigarettes constitute about one-fourth of BATSLN's profits."},
    {"question": "How did BATSLN's stock respond to the news of potential FDA restrictions on menthol cigarettes?",
     "answer": "Following the announcement of potential FDA restrictions on menthol cigarettes, BATSLN’s stock price fell by 11%."},
    {"question": "What other factor has contributed to the increased caution from investors towards BATSLN?",
     "answer": "ncreased caution from investors towards BATSLN can also be attributed to the company’s higher leverage, now around 3.7x, which has persisted since the 2017 merger with Reynolds American Inc (RAI)."},
]
len(questions_and_answers)
55
questions = [dspy.Example(question=elem["question"]).with_inputs("question") for elem in questions_and_answers]
trainset = questions[:25]
devset = questions[25:35]
testset = questions[35:]
len(trainset), len(devset), len(testset)
(25, 10, 20)

Define the evaluation metric

An answer from the RAG system, produced by a language model, can be evaluated by another language model.

A RAG system may generate answers using a smaller faster model (to be reponsive for the user or just cost efficient).

However, if we need to evaluate the answers of the RAG system to benchmark or improve it, we can use a larger slower model.

This is what we are going to do next: The RAG system will be based on GPT 3.5 to generate answers; We will evaluate the quality of the answers using GPT 4.

# language model to generate answers
gpt_turbo = dspy.OpenAI(model="gpt-3.5-turbo", max_tokens=4000)
# language model to evaluate answers
metricLM = dspy.OpenAI(model='gpt-4', max_tokens=1000, model_type='chat')
class Assess(dspy.Signature):
    """Assess the quality of an answer to a question."""

    context = dspy.InputField(desc="The context for answering the question.")
    assessed_question = dspy.InputField(desc="The evaluation criterion.")
    assessed_answer = dspy.InputField(desc="The answer to the question.")
    assessment_answer = dspy.OutputField(desc="A rating between 1 and 5. Only output the rating and nothing else.")
def llm_metric(gold, pred, trace=None):

    predicted_answer = pred.answer
    question = gold.question

    print(f"Test Question: {question}")
    print(f"Predicted Answer: {predicted_answer}")

    detail = "Is the assessed answer detailed?"
    faithful = "Is the assessed text grounded in the context? Say no if it includes significant facts not in the context."
    overall = f"Please rate how well this answer answers the question, `{question}` based on the context.\n `{predicted_answer}`"

    with dspy.context(lm=metricLM):
        context = retrieve(question)
        detail = dspy.ChainOfThought(Assess)(context="N/A", assessed_question=detail, assessed_answer=predicted_answer)
        faithful = dspy.ChainOfThought(Assess)(context=context, assessed_question=faithful, assessed_answer=predicted_answer)
        overall = dspy.ChainOfThought(Assess)(context=context, assessed_question=overall, assessed_answer=predicted_answer)

    print(f"Faithful: {faithful.assessment_answer}")
    print(f"Detail: {detail.assessment_answer}")
    print(f"Overall: {overall.assessment_answer}")


    total = float(detail.assessment_answer) + float(faithful.assessment_answer)*2 + float(overall.assessment_answer)

    return total / 5.0
test_example = dspy.Example(question="What do cross encoders do?")
test_pred = dspy.Example(answer="They re-rank documents.")
llm_metric(test_example, test_pred)
Test Question: What do cross encoders do?
Predicted Answer: They re-rank documents.
Faithful: 1
Detail: 1
Overall: 1





0.8
test_example = dspy.Example(question="What business did Conagra Brands Inc. spin off on November 9, 2016?")
test_pred = dspy.Example(answer="Conagra completed the spin-off of Lamb Weston, which is primarily focused on the frozen potato fries business.")

llm_metric(test_example, test_pred)
Test Question: What business did Conagra Brands Inc. spin off on November 9, 2016?
Predicted Answer: Conagra completed the spin-off of Lamb Weston, which is primarily focused on the frozen potato fries business.
Faithful: 5
Detail: 3
Overall: 5





3.6

Given (question, answer), we can inspect the calls (prompts) to the GPT 4 LLM, and the completions (green text), that are performed to evaluate the answer:

metricLM.inspect_history(n=3)
Assess the quality of an answer to a question.

---

Follow the following format.

Context: The context for answering the question.

Assessed Question: The evaluation criterion.

Assessed Answer: The answer to the question.

Reasoning: Let's think step by step in order to ${produce the assessment_answer}. We ...

Assessment Answer: A rating between 1 and 5. Only output the rating and nothing else.

---

Context: N/A

Assessed Question: Is the assessed answer detailed?

Assessed Answer: Conagra completed the spin-off of Lamb Weston, which is primarily focused on the frozen potato fries business.

Reasoning: Let's think step by step in order to produce the assessment answer. We need to consider if the answer provides enough detail to fully answer the question. The answer does provide some detail, such as the company involved (Conagra), the action taken (spin-off), and the focus of the new company (frozen potato fries business). However, it does not provide any additional details such as the reason for the spin-off, the date it occurred, or the impact it had on either company. 

Assessment Answer: 3







Assess the quality of an answer to a question.

---

Follow the following format.

Context: The context for answering the question.

Assessed Question: The evaluation criterion.

Assessed Answer: The answer to the question.

Reasoning: Let's think step by step in order to ${produce the assessment_answer}. We ...

Assessment Answer: A rating between 1 and 5. Only output the rating and nothing else.

---

Context:
[1] «CAG ( Conagra Brands Inc. )  was a 12BUSD revenues food US company based in Chicago. On November 9, 2016, the company completed the spin-off of Lamb Weston - essentially its frozen potato fries  business (a 4BUSD revenue business). French fries and any sort of fried potatoes is a sound investment. Half of the debt of Conagra was pushed to the new company LW (( Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. ). From a BBB- company, the new Conagra is now BBB while  Lamb Weston is a BB. According to last Friday’s ISDA determination committee, a CDS holder having 1MUSD protection on CAG is now having 500k on new CAG and 500k on LW.  New CAG is indicated 20bps tighter while LW is 40bps wider. CAG is also a member of the investment grade credit indices in the US, the CDX.IG, in all series up to the latest the series 27. All credit indices members will also be split and will have 126 reference entities, CAG and LW being half weighted. This credit event is a source of large operations for credit derivatives trade processing in the next days.

Meanwhile, the broader credit market went through a slow session with European investment grade risk being the weakest part of the investment spectrum.
»
[2] «Overnight 3G Capital Partners and Berkshire Hathaway have offered to merge Kraft Foods Group with HNZ (HJ Heinz Company) to create The Kraft Heinz Co. 3G and Berkshire will own 51% on the new company, while existing Kraft shareholders will get 49% and a $16.5 special dividend. Importantly for the CDS market, no new debt will be issued and the management announced that they are committed to maintaining an investment grade rating going forward. The operation is effectively removing the LBO risk which was overhanging on the food and beverage sector as 3G now appears committed (at least in the medium term). So entire complex traded better today, but the most spectacular move was seen in HNZ’s 5 year CDS which gapped 119bps to 64bps as investors expect it to be a dead box going forward.»
[3] «Back in March, METFNL ( Metro AG ) announced that it would proceed with a demerger, in order to separate its food business (Food Co) from  its Consumer Electronics business (CE Co). METFNL held a conference call on the 6th September to give further details regarding the operation. All the financial liabilities of the group including bonds will be assumed by Food Co. Pension liabilities will be allocated 40% to Food Co and 60% to CE Co. Lease obligations will be 60% and 40%, and cash balances 75% and 25% respectively. Even though METFNL’s management expects both companies to maintain an investment grade rating after the spin-off, there won’t be any capital increase. That means that Food Co, due to the high debt load, will have at best weak credit metrics for its rating category and will be left with very limited financial leeway. Moody’s is understood to effectively ask the management to do more if Food Co is to be eligible for IG rating. That is probably why METFNL which will reference Food Co going forward has underperformed its peers during the last week. 
Meanwhile, the broader credit market spent another day looking at US interest rates. It dithered all session, and was unable to decide whether to go wider or tighter. Credit indices traded in a range (328/335 for iTraxx Crossover and 69/72 for iTraxx Main) and eventually closed bang in the middle of it.
»
[4] «The failings of the food industry are in the spotlight again. This morning, ITV News and the Guardian have published a report that claims to have uncovered a series of safety breaches at the poultry plants of 2 Sisters Food Group (2SFG). The allegations involve tampering slaughter date of poultry being processed at sites that supply retailers including Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Marks & Spencer, Aldi and Lidl. The latters all said they would launch enquiries. Several of them decided to remove from their shelves products coming from the incriminated sites without further ado and have vowed to suspend their relationship with the firm until the investigation has concluded. 2SFG was founded in 1993 and now produces one third of all the poultry products consumed in the UK, and had revenues of £3.1Bln in 2016. Investors took the matter very seriously and parent company BOPRLN (Boparan Finance Plc) was under severe pressure as soon as the reports came out. Its 5-year risk premium jumped 169bps to 738bps. That is its widest level since it joined iTraxx Crossover 3 years ago.»
[5] «In an environment which has been supportive for credit over the last 12 months, a few names have been trading wider, especially in the Consumer Non-Cyclical sector. Releveraging seems to be on the agenda of a few companies through different channels. For instance, on the one hand, DGX ( Quest Diagnostics Inc) experienced weak trading conditions and decided to support its share price through share buy-backs. On the other hand, Campbell Soup (Campbell Soup Company) has been the subject of takeover speculations. Out of the money options on the stock experienced unusually high volumes recently and 5 year protection has been pushed aggressively wider. LBO could be back in people’s mind if they think systemic risks are receding.»

Assessed Question: Is the assessed text grounded in the context? Say no if it includes significant facts not in the context.

Assessed Answer: Conagra completed the spin-off of Lamb Weston, which is primarily focused on the frozen potato fries business.

Reasoning: Let's think step by step in order to produce the assessment answer. We can see that the assessed answer is indeed grounded in the context. The first paragraph of the context mentions that Conagra completed the spin-off of Lamb Weston, which is its frozen potato fries business. Therefore, the assessed answer is accurate and does not include any significant facts not in the context.

Assessment Answer: 5







Assess the quality of an answer to a question.

---

Follow the following format.

Context: The context for answering the question.

Assessed Question: The evaluation criterion.

Assessed Answer: The answer to the question.

Reasoning: Let's think step by step in order to ${produce the assessment_answer}. We ...

Assessment Answer: A rating between 1 and 5. Only output the rating and nothing else.

---

Context:
[1] «CAG ( Conagra Brands Inc. )  was a 12BUSD revenues food US company based in Chicago. On November 9, 2016, the company completed the spin-off of Lamb Weston - essentially its frozen potato fries  business (a 4BUSD revenue business). French fries and any sort of fried potatoes is a sound investment. Half of the debt of Conagra was pushed to the new company LW (( Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. ). From a BBB- company, the new Conagra is now BBB while  Lamb Weston is a BB. According to last Friday’s ISDA determination committee, a CDS holder having 1MUSD protection on CAG is now having 500k on new CAG and 500k on LW.  New CAG is indicated 20bps tighter while LW is 40bps wider. CAG is also a member of the investment grade credit indices in the US, the CDX.IG, in all series up to the latest the series 27. All credit indices members will also be split and will have 126 reference entities, CAG and LW being half weighted. This credit event is a source of large operations for credit derivatives trade processing in the next days.

Meanwhile, the broader credit market went through a slow session with European investment grade risk being the weakest part of the investment spectrum.
»
[2] «Overnight 3G Capital Partners and Berkshire Hathaway have offered to merge Kraft Foods Group with HNZ (HJ Heinz Company) to create The Kraft Heinz Co. 3G and Berkshire will own 51% on the new company, while existing Kraft shareholders will get 49% and a $16.5 special dividend. Importantly for the CDS market, no new debt will be issued and the management announced that they are committed to maintaining an investment grade rating going forward. The operation is effectively removing the LBO risk which was overhanging on the food and beverage sector as 3G now appears committed (at least in the medium term). So entire complex traded better today, but the most spectacular move was seen in HNZ’s 5 year CDS which gapped 119bps to 64bps as investors expect it to be a dead box going forward.»
[3] «Back in March, METFNL ( Metro AG ) announced that it would proceed with a demerger, in order to separate its food business (Food Co) from  its Consumer Electronics business (CE Co). METFNL held a conference call on the 6th September to give further details regarding the operation. All the financial liabilities of the group including bonds will be assumed by Food Co. Pension liabilities will be allocated 40% to Food Co and 60% to CE Co. Lease obligations will be 60% and 40%, and cash balances 75% and 25% respectively. Even though METFNL’s management expects both companies to maintain an investment grade rating after the spin-off, there won’t be any capital increase. That means that Food Co, due to the high debt load, will have at best weak credit metrics for its rating category and will be left with very limited financial leeway. Moody’s is understood to effectively ask the management to do more if Food Co is to be eligible for IG rating. That is probably why METFNL which will reference Food Co going forward has underperformed its peers during the last week. 
Meanwhile, the broader credit market spent another day looking at US interest rates. It dithered all session, and was unable to decide whether to go wider or tighter. Credit indices traded in a range (328/335 for iTraxx Crossover and 69/72 for iTraxx Main) and eventually closed bang in the middle of it.
»
[4] «The failings of the food industry are in the spotlight again. This morning, ITV News and the Guardian have published a report that claims to have uncovered a series of safety breaches at the poultry plants of 2 Sisters Food Group (2SFG). The allegations involve tampering slaughter date of poultry being processed at sites that supply retailers including Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Marks & Spencer, Aldi and Lidl. The latters all said they would launch enquiries. Several of them decided to remove from their shelves products coming from the incriminated sites without further ado and have vowed to suspend their relationship with the firm until the investigation has concluded. 2SFG was founded in 1993 and now produces one third of all the poultry products consumed in the UK, and had revenues of £3.1Bln in 2016. Investors took the matter very seriously and parent company BOPRLN (Boparan Finance Plc) was under severe pressure as soon as the reports came out. Its 5-year risk premium jumped 169bps to 738bps. That is its widest level since it joined iTraxx Crossover 3 years ago.»
[5] «In an environment which has been supportive for credit over the last 12 months, a few names have been trading wider, especially in the Consumer Non-Cyclical sector. Releveraging seems to be on the agenda of a few companies through different channels. For instance, on the one hand, DGX ( Quest Diagnostics Inc) experienced weak trading conditions and decided to support its share price through share buy-backs. On the other hand, Campbell Soup (Campbell Soup Company) has been the subject of takeover speculations. Out of the money options on the stock experienced unusually high volumes recently and 5 year protection has been pushed aggressively wider. LBO could be back in people’s mind if they think systemic risks are receding.»

Assessed Question: Please rate how well this answer answers the question, `What business did Conagra Brands Inc. spin off on November 9, 2016?` based on the context. `Conagra completed the spin-off of Lamb Weston, which is primarily focused on the frozen potato fries business.`

Assessed Answer: Conagra completed the spin-off of Lamb Weston, which is primarily focused on the frozen potato fries business.

Reasoning: Let's think step by step in order to produce the assessment answer. We first look at the context provided. The first paragraph clearly states that Conagra Brands Inc. completed the spin-off of Lamb Weston, which is essentially its frozen potato fries business. This directly answers the question asked. The assessed answer is accurate and directly taken from the context, providing the exact information asked for in the question.

Assessment Answer: 5

Generation ‘module’

class GenerateAnswer(dspy.Signature):
    """Answer questions based on the context."""

    context = dspy.InputField(desc="may contain relevant facts")
    question = dspy.InputField()
    answer = dspy.OutputField()
# setting GPT 3.5 as the default lm for the generation in dspy
dspy.settings.configure(lm=gpt_turbo)
# dummy example of the og tutorial, with a code fix on the missing context
dspy.Predict(GenerateAnswer)(question="What are Cross Encoders?", context="Not available.")
dspy.settings.lm.inspect_history(n=1)
Answer questions based on the context.

---

Follow the following format.

Context: may contain relevant facts
Question: ${question}
Answer: ${answer}

---

Context: Not available.
Question: What are Cross Encoders?
Answer: Cross Encoders are a type of neural network architecture used in natural language processing tasks, particularly in sentence pair classification. They take two input sequences and produce a single output, making them suitable for tasks like semantic textual similarity and paraphrase identification.
# same, but with an extra CoT step
dspy.ChainOfThought(GenerateAnswer)(question="What are Cross Encoders?", context="Not available.")
dspy.settings.lm.inspect_history(n=1)
Answer questions based on the context.

---

Follow the following format.

Context: may contain relevant facts

Question: ${question}

Reasoning: Let's think step by step in order to ${produce the answer}. We ...

Answer: ${answer}

---

Context: Not available.

Question: What are Cross Encoders?

Reasoning: Let's think step by step in order to understand what Cross Encoders are. Cross Encoders are a type of neural network architecture commonly used in natural language processing tasks. They are designed to take two input sequences and produce a single output, typically used for tasks like sentence pair classification or similarity scoring.

Answer: Cross Encoders are a type of neural network architecture used in NLP tasks to process two input sequences and produce a single output.

Definition of the RAG system: Retriever + Generation modules

class RAG(dspy.Module):
    def __init__(self, num_passages=3):
        super().__init__()

        self.retrieve = retrieve
        self.generate_answer = dspy.ChainOfThought(GenerateAnswer)

    def forward(self, question):
        context = self.retrieve(question)
        prediction = self.generate_answer(context=context, question=question)
        return dspy.Prediction(answer=prediction.answer)
uncompiled_rag = RAG()

Here is an example of a question that cannot be answered by strictly adhering to the given corpus (and retrieved context):

print(uncompiled_rag("What are re-rankers in search engines?").answer)
The context provided does not mention re-rankers in search engines. Therefore, we cannot provide an answer to this question based on the given information.
dspy.settings.lm.inspect_history(n=1)
Answer questions based on the context.

---

Follow the following format.

Context: may contain relevant facts

Question: ${question}

Reasoning: Let's think step by step in order to ${produce the answer}. We ...

Answer: ${answer}

---

Context:
[1] «The session turned out to be fairly strong across the board, and there were only a handful of names which closed wider on the day. The tone was a bit more hesitant in the morning though, as people feared that the bank holiday in the US tomorrow would weight on liquidity. In the early hours of trading, RENAUL ( Renault SA ) was one of the standout names. It started the day strongly on the back of an upgrade by Fitch. The rating agency revised RENAUL’s rating to BBB- outlook positive, bringing it back in the investment grade category. The 5 year CDS quickly tightened by 15bps (it closed at 112.5bps) as buyers of cash started to emerge. Indeed, if this upgrade took place earlier that investors had anticipated, they now expect S&P; and Moodys to follow suit. If that happens, investment grade funds will start to buy cash, which should lead to further outperformance. Rating actions still matter, especially for names that sit on the border of investment grade and high yield. »
[2] «European synthetic credit market added in March 11 new high yield  reference entities to its trading catalog. The new names represent 11 out of the 12 additions to the new series of the European Crossover index. 
  The last one addition is a fallen angel (TDC A/S).  After a month, 
  the roll was march the 20th, the trading of these new names is still rather subdued and a sort 
  of disappointment for market participants. It is hard to assess the true activity. 
  The tip of the Iceberg is the reported cleared volume by LCH CDSCLear, 
  the only CDS clearing house offering to clear these new names. 
    Out of the 11 names, WIND TRE S.P.A. and Verisure Midholding AB are the only one with reported 
    open interests as of yesterday according to OTCStreaming. 
    Some of the new names are well known special situations in the European high yield community. 
    These entities have large bond issues like Picard Bondco S.A. with a 1.2BEuros 5Y FRN 
    issued late last year. But the derivatives community is not familiar with these names
     especially due to the lack of time series. DataGrapple infers for these entities an 
     alleged time series using the "best" benchmark. The choice of the benchmark is not obvious. 
     In some situation a benchmark is not relevant. For STEINHOFF EUROPE AG, Datagrapple team decided 
     to use NEW LOOK SENIOR ISSUER PLC as the best proxy to backward infer a time series (see the attached
 the grapple). DataGrapple provides estimates for all the new CDS entities, hopefully it helps to make some rough estimate  of their risks.»
[3] «When the composition of the Crossover is modified, the common belief is that new entrants will suffer as they are now part of the hedging tool most widely used by portfolio managers, and that names existing the index will benefit. This Grapple paints a slightly different picture, and shows that this time around, if the exiting names are among the best performers since the beginning of the week, the new entrants are also part of this elite group. Dealers might have been a bit harsh on them on Monday anticipating high demand for protection, and these high risk premia triggered some clients’ selling of CDS. The hunt for yield is still on, and some of the names joining the index have decent credit metrics which makes them interesting portfolio diversifying options.»
[4] «The roll and the launch of the new series of indices have not brought a sea of change to the credit market. On the one hand, credit indices remain an investment vehicle of choice and most index rolls between new series and the previous ones trade below their fair value (with the exception of iTraxx Financials in Europe where clients are still short risk). This means that new series are more expensive (i.e. they trade tighter relative to their values) than the previous ones. On the other hand, there are numerous stories affecting single names. The commodities’ saga is still unfolding, Emerging Markets are a concern to investors, and the automotive sector is having a brutal time (particularly in Europe) to name a few. So one should not be surprised to see the negative index credit bases environment persist for some time.»
[5] «You might struggle to see all of them on this grapple, but we are pleased to announce that the universe captured by DataGrapple has now been slightly expanded: the number of entities on which prices and volumes are available has increased from 680 to 697, mainly on the back on new inclusions in the indices launched last Friday (we also slightly anticipated the launch of CDXHY series 24). In addition to the index constituents, DataGrapple still references the 500 most actively traded reference entities over the last 6 months according to DTTC. Rating changes have been factored in, and the relevant trees now reflect this of course. We also put a great amount of work on improving our clustering algorithm. Based on our 9-year-long time series, it produces all the Machine Trees which regroup statistically close entities. They should be much more stable going forward. As always comments and questions are welcome, so please get in touch with us.»

Question: What are re-rankers in search engines?

Reasoning: Let's think step by step in order to produce the answer. We need to understand the context provided and look for any mention of re-rankers in search engines.

Answer: The context provided does not mention re-rankers in search engines. Therefore, we cannot provide an answer to this question based on the given information.

Here is an example of a question that can be answered using the provided blogs:

print(uncompiled_rag("What is the intended purpose of the capital increase by Banca Monte dei Paschi?").answer)
The intended purpose of the capital increase by Banca Monte dei Paschi is to strengthen the bank's financial position and address its bad loan portfolio by deconsolidating almost €28 billion in non-performing loans.
dspy.settings.lm.inspect_history(n=1)
Answer questions based on the context.

---

Follow the following format.

Context: may contain relevant facts

Question: ${question}

Reasoning: Let's think step by step in order to ${produce the answer}. We ...

Answer: ${answer}

---

Context:
[1] «Over the last fortnight, MONTE’s ( Banca Monte dei Paschi  ) stock has roughly doubled. The 5-year risk premium of its senior debt has been cut by 125bps to 350bps since late September. This morning, it looked as if this amazing ride could continue for a while. The company outlined plans to eliminate 2,600 jobs, shut 500 branches and slash the lender's €28Bln pile of bad loans. That sent the stock another 20% up and the debt risk premium another 20bps tighter. To complete its turnaround, the bank also needs to raise €5Bln in fresh capital by year end though, and the CEO admitted that his effort had only begun in that respect. The plan involves a voluntary debt to equity swap, in order to cut the amount MONTE would need to raise from shareholders. The bank wants to spin off €28Bln of souring loan, swap debt for equity and manage a capital increase all at the same time in an exceptionally compressed timeframe. To make things trickier still, there is the December 4 constitutional referendum in Italy which could lead to a increased volatility towards the end of the year. When that reality hit investors, they sent the stock 30% down from its - 15% down on the day  -and the risk premium back to almost unchanged on the day.
 »
[2] «Once the results of the Italian referendum were known, MONTE’s ( Banca Monte dei Paschi  ) board asked to the ECB an extension from the end of the year to Jan. 20 of the deadline set for its recapitalisation exercise “due to the changed reference context”. A delay would have allowed the bank more time to find investors while Italian leaders put a new government in place following the resignation of Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. Early in the afternoon, it emerged that the ECB rejected the bank’s request, increasing the likelihood of a state bailout that would impose losses on shareholders and bondholders. Up to that point, the credit market had been back on the bullish trajectory it has followed since Monday. If the news was not enough to derail the whole market (iTraxx Main closed 1.5bps at 72.5bps and iTraxx Crossover 8bps tighter at 306.5bps), it reversed the trend of iTraxx Financial Senior and Subordinated which closed 1bps wider at 98bps (2bps off the intraday tights) and 3.5bps wider at 225.5bps (12bps off the intraday tights) respectively. On Monday, we might learn how systemically important MONTE really is…»
[3] «Italian banks have been much talked about over the last few sessions. Positive vibes first came during the week-end when Banca Popolare Di Milano and BPIM ( Banca Popolare SC ) won shareholders’ approval for a merger creating Italy’s third largest lender. Today, MONTE’s ( Banca Monte dei Paschi  ) board met after asking their CEO to look into a proposal by Mr Passera, Italy’s ex-minister for economic development and former CEO of Intesa Sanpaolo, to shore up its finances. The plan envisions a €5Bln capital increase, which would include a €1Bln share sale to existing shareholders and €2.5Bln from new long terms backers. While volumes traded on peripheral banks are still dwarfed by transactions on DB, these string of positive news enabled them to outperformed their peers recently and they are the brightest green spots in the above grapple.

Meanwhile, the broader credit market also benefitted from the better tone in the financial sector and from a few earnings beats which buoyed the equity market. Until tomorrow night, iTraxx Main and CDXIG could find it difficult to trade significantly away from their current levels (72.5bps and 75bps respectively) as these are important pins for options expiring late in the afternoon.
»
[4] «MONTE ( Banca Monte dei Paschi  ) gave some details about their debt for equity exchange yesterday night. They plan to offer equity worth between 85% and 100% of face value to the holders of their €4.3Bln outstanding subordinated bonds. The generous terms reflect the need to deliver on this transaction as fully as possible. Indeed, they want to keep the amount of fresh external equity to be raised to a minimum, as the €5Bln total capital increase planned before the end of the year is instrumental in a process that should lead to the deconsolidation of their almost €28Bln portfolio of non-performing loans. Renewed confidence in the success of the deal led investors to send MONTE’s 5-year risk premium 12bps tighter to 392bps, and benefitted the whole Italian complex which outperformed other members of the European financial sector.

Meanwhile, the broader credit market benefitted from the stabilisation of interest rates in Europe and in the US which held onto their overnight (modest) gains throughout the session. iTraxx Crossover and CDX High Yield were the outperformers (closing 9bps and 16bps tighter at 341bps and 418bps respectively), while iTraxx Main (ITXEB) and CDX IG closed 1.5bps and 3bps tighter at 77.5bps and 75bps respectively. Tomorrow is option expiry day on credit indices, and chances are that ITXEB will be attracted by the 75bps strike which represents an important option pin.
»
[5] «On Friday, it emerged that Fortress Investment Group and Elliott Capital Management had dropped out of talks to buy bad loans from MONTE ( Banca Monte dei Paschi  ) complicating the rescue plan for the lender backed by the Italian government. They were the only international bidders for the riskier tranches of MONTE’s bad loan securitization. That leaves Atlante, the fund set up to help the struggling Italian banking sector, as the only potential buyer and jeopardizes the asset sale, which is a key part of the plan to restructure the bank with a capital injection from the state, after MONTE failed to shore up capital privately. Ultimately, it could also make similar rescue plans for two other northern Italian lenders, Veneto Banca Spa and Popolare Vicenza Spa, much more difficult to pull off. Surprisingly, if MONTE’s 5-year risk premium was marked aggressively wider - insuring senior debt now costs 330bps per year, while insuring subordinated costs 73.5% upfront -, it did not feed through the whole Italian banking sector and most names were actually unchanged to a tad tighter.»

Question: What is the intended purpose of the capital increase by Banca Monte dei Paschi?

Reasoning: Let's think step by step in order to produce the answer. We know from the context that Banca Monte dei Paschi plans to raise €5 billion in fresh capital by the end of the year. This capital increase is instrumental in a process that should lead to the deconsolidation of their almost €28 billion portfolio of non-performing loans. The bank also plans to offer equity to holders of their outstanding subordinated bonds as part of a debt-to-equity exchange. Therefore, the intended purpose of the capital increase is to strengthen the bank's financial position and address its bad loan portfolio.

Answer: The intended purpose of the capital increase by Banca Monte dei Paschi is to strengthen the bank's financial position and address its bad loan portfolio by deconsolidating almost €28 billion in non-performing loans.

We can evaluate this crude RAG (un-optimized prompts) on the (validation) devset, and obtain a baseline score:

from dspy.evaluate.evaluate import Evaluate

evaluate = Evaluate(devset=devset, num_threads=1, display_progress=True, display_table=5)

evaluate(RAG(), metric=llm_metric)
  0%|          | 0/10 [00:00<?, ?it/s]

Test Question: What sectors does NXP Semiconductors NV primarily supply chips for?
Predicted Answer: NXP Semiconductors NV primarily supplies chips for the smartphone and auto industries.
Faithful: 5

Average Metric: 3.4 / 1  (340.0):  10%|█         | 1/10 [00:00<00:03,  2.35it/s]


Detail: 2
Overall: 5
Test Question: What are some of the applications of NXP's chips in the auto industry?
Predicted Answer: Some of the applications of NXP's chips in the auto industry include advanced driver assistance systems, "infotainment," and in-vehicle networking between different car systems.


Average Metric: 7.4 / 2  (370.0):  20%|██        | 2/10 [00:00<00:03,  2.16it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: How did NXP's Q1 2016 earnings report compare to analysts' expectations?
Predicted Answer: NXP's Q1 2016 earnings report was in line with analysts' expectations, and the company managed to surprise investors with their numbers.


Average Metric: 11.0 / 3  (366.7):  30%|███       | 3/10 [00:01<00:03,  2.25it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 3
Overall: 5
Test Question: What did NXP's management say about the demand and market conditions during their earnings report?
Predicted Answer: The management of NXP stated that overall demand continues to be subdued, but they also mentioned that the headwinds experienced in the previous year should begin to subside in the coming quarter.


Average Metric: 15.0 / 4  (375.0):  40%|████      | 4/10 [00:01<00:02,  2.12it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: What was NXP's revenue and gross margin outlook for Q2, and how did it compare to the consensus estimates?
Predicted Answer: The revenue outlook for Q2 was $2.3-2.4 billion, slightly above the consensus of $2.3 billion, and the gross margin outlook was 49.5-50.5%, slightly above the consensus of 49.8%.


Average Metric: 19.0 / 5  (380.0):  50%|█████     | 5/10 [00:02<00:02,  2.15it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: What steps has Ball taken to win regulatory approval for its acquisition of Rexam?
Predicted Answer: Ball has agreed with Rexam to sell plants in Brazil and Europe, along with innovation and support functions in several countries, to ARGID (Ardagh Packaging) to satisfy regulatory concerns. This divestment program is subject to regulatory approvals and will enable ARGID to acquire assets with combined revenues of around $3 billion. Additionally, ARGID will issue $2.85 billion of secured and unsecured notes to help finance the operation.


Average Metric: 23.0 / 6  (383.3):  60%|██████    | 6/10 [00:02<00:01,  2.06it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: Who is acquiring the assets divested by Ball and Rexam, and what is the significance of this acquisition?
Predicted Answer: ARGID (Ardagh Packaging) is acquiring the assets divested by Ball and Rexam. This acquisition is significant as it will allow ARGID to acquire assets with combined revenues of around $3 billion, costing the company approximately $3.4 billion, as part of a divestment program to satisfy regulatory concerns related to the Ball-Rexam deal.


Average Metric: 27.0 / 7  (385.7):  70%|███████   | 7/10 [00:03<00:01,  1.98it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: Why did ARGID's risk premium not participate in the recent rally of the iTraxx Crossover index?
Predicted Answer: ARGID's risk premium did not participate in the recent rally of the iTraxx Crossover index because it has been dropped from the index and is no longer included in the group of entities being traded.


Average Metric: 27.0 / 8  (337.5):  80%|████████  | 8/10 [00:04<00:01,  1.74it/s]

Faithful: No
Detail: 5
Overall: 1
Error for example in dev set:          could not convert string to float: 'No'
Test Question: How did the market react to the announcement regarding ARGID's involvement in the Ball-Rexam deal?
Predicted Answer: The market reacted to the announcement regarding ARGID's involvement in the Ball-Rexam deal by marking ARGID's 5-year CDS 36bps wider to 452bps.


Average Metric: 31.0 / 9  (344.4):  90%|█████████ | 9/10 [00:04<00:00,  1.77it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: What adjustments did Alcoa Inc make to its global aluminum demand forecast for 2016?
Predicted Answer: Alcoa Inc adjusted their global aluminum demand forecast for 2016 from a 6% increase to a 5% climb.


Average Metric: 34.8 / 10  (348.0): 100%|██████████| 10/10 [00:05<00:00,  1.90it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 4
Overall: 5
Average Metric: 34.8 / 10  (348.0%)
  question answer llm_metric
0 What sectors does NXP Semiconductors NV primarily supply chips for? NXP Semiconductors NV primarily supplies chips for the smartphone and auto industries. 3.4
1 What are some of the applications of NXP's chips in the auto industry? Some of the applications of NXP's chips in the auto industry include advanced driver assistance systems, "infotainment," and in-vehicle networking between different car systems. 4.0
2 How did NXP's Q1 2016 earnings report compare to analysts' expectations? NXP's Q1 2016 earnings report was in line with analysts' expectations, and the company managed to surprise investors with their numbers. 3.6
3 What did NXP's management say about the demand and market conditions during their earnings report? The management of NXP stated that overall demand continues to be subdued, but they also mentioned that the headwinds experienced in the previous year should... 4.0
4 What was NXP's revenue and gross margin outlook for Q2, and how did it compare to the consensus estimates? The revenue outlook for Q2 was $2.3-2.4 billion, slightly above the consensus of $2.3 billion, and the gross margin outlook was 49.5-50.5%, slightly above the... 4.0
... 5 more rows not displayed ...
348.0

Using DSPy to optimize the RAG system with BootstrapFewShot

from dspy.teleprompt import BootstrapFewShot

teleprompter = BootstrapFewShot(metric=llm_metric, max_labeled_demos=8, max_rounds=3)

compiled_rag = teleprompter.compile(uncompiled_rag, trainset=trainset)
  0%|          | 0/25 [00:00<?, ?it/s]

Test Question: What business did Conagra Brands Inc. spin off on November 9, 2016?
Predicted Answer: Conagra Brands Inc. spun off Lamb Weston on November 9, 2016.


  4%|▍         | 1/25 [00:00<00:09,  2.52it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5


  8%|▊         | 2/25 [00:00<00:09,  2.52it/s]

Test Question: How much of Conagra's debt was transferred to Lamb Weston after the spin-off?
Predicted Answer: Half of Conagra's debt was transferred to Lamb Weston after the spin-off.
Faithful: 5
Detail: 3
Overall: 5
Test Question: What was the revenue size of the spun-off business, Lamb Weston?
Predicted Answer: The revenue size of the spun-off business, Lamb Weston, was 4 billion USD.


 12%|█▏        | 3/25 [00:01<00:09,  2.42it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 2
Overall: 5
Test Question: What were the credit ratings for Conagra and Lamb Weston after the spin-off?
Predicted Answer: Conagra's credit rating after the spin-off was BBB, and Lamb Weston's credit rating was BB.


 16%|█▌        | 4/25 [00:01<00:09,  2.32it/s]


Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5


  0%|          | 0/25 [00:00<?, ?it/s]
  0%|          | 0/25 [00:00<?, ?it/s]

Bootstrapped 4 full traces after 1 examples in round 2.
compiled_rag("What is the intended purpose of the capital increase by Banca Monte dei Paschi?").answer
'The intended purpose of the capital increase by Banca Monte dei Paschi is to lead to the deconsolidation of their almost €28 billion portfolio of non-performing loans.'

If we inspect the LLM call, we can observe that the prompt is now much longer and contains several examples of (context, question, reasoning, answer) before the completion of the actual expected answer:

dspy.settings.lm.inspect_history(n=1)
Answer questions based on the context.

---

Follow the following format.

Context: may contain relevant facts

Question: ${question}

Reasoning: Let's think step by step in order to ${produce the answer}. We ...

Answer: ${answer}

---

Context:
[1] «CAG ( Conagra Brands Inc. )  was a 12BUSD revenues food US company based in Chicago. On November 9, 2016, the company completed the spin-off of Lamb Weston - essentially its frozen potato fries  business (a 4BUSD revenue business). French fries and any sort of fried potatoes is a sound investment. Half of the debt of Conagra was pushed to the new company LW (( Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. ). From a BBB- company, the new Conagra is now BBB while  Lamb Weston is a BB. According to last Friday’s ISDA determination committee, a CDS holder having 1MUSD protection on CAG is now having 500k on new CAG and 500k on LW.  New CAG is indicated 20bps tighter while LW is 40bps wider. CAG is also a member of the investment grade credit indices in the US, the CDX.IG, in all series up to the latest the series 27. All credit indices members will also be split and will have 126 reference entities, CAG and LW being half weighted. This credit event is a source of large operations for credit derivatives trade processing in the next days.

Meanwhile, the broader credit market went through a slow session with European investment grade risk being the weakest part of the investment spectrum.
»
[2] «Overnight 3G Capital Partners and Berkshire Hathaway have offered to merge Kraft Foods Group with HNZ (HJ Heinz Company) to create The Kraft Heinz Co. 3G and Berkshire will own 51% on the new company, while existing Kraft shareholders will get 49% and a $16.5 special dividend. Importantly for the CDS market, no new debt will be issued and the management announced that they are committed to maintaining an investment grade rating going forward. The operation is effectively removing the LBO risk which was overhanging on the food and beverage sector as 3G now appears committed (at least in the medium term). So entire complex traded better today, but the most spectacular move was seen in HNZ’s 5 year CDS which gapped 119bps to 64bps as investors expect it to be a dead box going forward.»
[3] «Back in March, METFNL ( Metro AG ) announced that it would proceed with a demerger, in order to separate its food business (Food Co) from  its Consumer Electronics business (CE Co). METFNL held a conference call on the 6th September to give further details regarding the operation. All the financial liabilities of the group including bonds will be assumed by Food Co. Pension liabilities will be allocated 40% to Food Co and 60% to CE Co. Lease obligations will be 60% and 40%, and cash balances 75% and 25% respectively. Even though METFNL’s management expects both companies to maintain an investment grade rating after the spin-off, there won’t be any capital increase. That means that Food Co, due to the high debt load, will have at best weak credit metrics for its rating category and will be left with very limited financial leeway. Moody’s is understood to effectively ask the management to do more if Food Co is to be eligible for IG rating. That is probably why METFNL which will reference Food Co going forward has underperformed its peers during the last week. 
Meanwhile, the broader credit market spent another day looking at US interest rates. It dithered all session, and was unable to decide whether to go wider or tighter. Credit indices traded in a range (328/335 for iTraxx Crossover and 69/72 for iTraxx Main) and eventually closed bang in the middle of it.
»
[4] «The failings of the food industry are in the spotlight again. This morning, ITV News and the Guardian have published a report that claims to have uncovered a series of safety breaches at the poultry plants of 2 Sisters Food Group (2SFG). The allegations involve tampering slaughter date of poultry being processed at sites that supply retailers including Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Marks & Spencer, Aldi and Lidl. The latters all said they would launch enquiries. Several of them decided to remove from their shelves products coming from the incriminated sites without further ado and have vowed to suspend their relationship with the firm until the investigation has concluded. 2SFG was founded in 1993 and now produces one third of all the poultry products consumed in the UK, and had revenues of £3.1Bln in 2016. Investors took the matter very seriously and parent company BOPRLN (Boparan Finance Plc) was under severe pressure as soon as the reports came out. Its 5-year risk premium jumped 169bps to 738bps. That is its widest level since it joined iTraxx Crossover 3 years ago.»
[5] «In an environment which has been supportive for credit over the last 12 months, a few names have been trading wider, especially in the Consumer Non-Cyclical sector. Releveraging seems to be on the agenda of a few companies through different channels. For instance, on the one hand, DGX ( Quest Diagnostics Inc) experienced weak trading conditions and decided to support its share price through share buy-backs. On the other hand, Campbell Soup (Campbell Soup Company) has been the subject of takeover speculations. Out of the money options on the stock experienced unusually high volumes recently and 5 year protection has been pushed aggressively wider. LBO could be back in people’s mind if they think systemic risks are receding.»

Question: What business did Conagra Brands Inc. spin off on November 9, 2016?

Reasoning: Let's think step by step in order to produce the answer. We know from the context that Conagra Brands Inc. completed the spin-off of Lamb Weston on November 9, 2016.

Answer: Conagra Brands Inc. spun off Lamb Weston on November 9, 2016.

---

Context:
[1] «CAG ( Conagra Brands Inc. )  was a 12BUSD revenues food US company based in Chicago. On November 9, 2016, the company completed the spin-off of Lamb Weston - essentially its frozen potato fries  business (a 4BUSD revenue business). French fries and any sort of fried potatoes is a sound investment. Half of the debt of Conagra was pushed to the new company LW (( Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. ). From a BBB- company, the new Conagra is now BBB while  Lamb Weston is a BB. According to last Friday’s ISDA determination committee, a CDS holder having 1MUSD protection on CAG is now having 500k on new CAG and 500k on LW.  New CAG is indicated 20bps tighter while LW is 40bps wider. CAG is also a member of the investment grade credit indices in the US, the CDX.IG, in all series up to the latest the series 27. All credit indices members will also be split and will have 126 reference entities, CAG and LW being half weighted. This credit event is a source of large operations for credit derivatives trade processing in the next days.

Meanwhile, the broader credit market went through a slow session with European investment grade risk being the weakest part of the investment spectrum.
»
[2] «Back in March, METFNL ( Metro AG ) announced that it would proceed with a demerger, in order to separate its food business (Food Co) from  its Consumer Electronics business (CE Co). METFNL held a conference call on the 6th September to give further details regarding the operation. All the financial liabilities of the group including bonds will be assumed by Food Co. Pension liabilities will be allocated 40% to Food Co and 60% to CE Co. Lease obligations will be 60% and 40%, and cash balances 75% and 25% respectively. Even though METFNL’s management expects both companies to maintain an investment grade rating after the spin-off, there won’t be any capital increase. That means that Food Co, due to the high debt load, will have at best weak credit metrics for its rating category and will be left with very limited financial leeway. Moody’s is understood to effectively ask the management to do more if Food Co is to be eligible for IG rating. That is probably why METFNL which will reference Food Co going forward has underperformed its peers during the last week. 
Meanwhile, the broader credit market spent another day looking at US interest rates. It dithered all session, and was unable to decide whether to go wider or tighter. Credit indices traded in a range (328/335 for iTraxx Crossover and 69/72 for iTraxx Main) and eventually closed bang in the middle of it.
»
[3] «Overnight 3G Capital Partners and Berkshire Hathaway have offered to merge Kraft Foods Group with HNZ (HJ Heinz Company) to create The Kraft Heinz Co. 3G and Berkshire will own 51% on the new company, while existing Kraft shareholders will get 49% and a $16.5 special dividend. Importantly for the CDS market, no new debt will be issued and the management announced that they are committed to maintaining an investment grade rating going forward. The operation is effectively removing the LBO risk which was overhanging on the food and beverage sector as 3G now appears committed (at least in the medium term). So entire complex traded better today, but the most spectacular move was seen in HNZ’s 5 year CDS which gapped 119bps to 64bps as investors expect it to be a dead box going forward.»
[4] «GNW ( Genworth Financial Inc ) offers insurance, wealth management, investment and financial solutions. It products covers mortgage guaranty, life insurance and long-term care insurance. After it repaid its bonds that came due in May, analysts estimated that the company was left with only $560mln of cash while it faces $1.6Bln of debt maturing in 2020-2021. Since October 2016, GNW has been working on clearing its proposed takeover by China Oceanwide. The transaction was recently revamped to include a $1.5Bln capital contribution that would be used mostly to repay GNW’s debt. News over the week-end that the Committee on Foreign Investments in the United States approved the deal after concluding that there are no unresolved security concerns came as a major relief to debt holders. It significantly increases the possibility that GNW’s $2.7Bln sale will go through, which would effectively put the issue of GNW’s bankruptcy that has been on investors’ mind off the agenda. GNW’s 5-year risk premium decreased by 200bps to 425bps, the tightest it has been since mid-2015.»
[5] «A fortnight ago, SLE (Hillshire Brands Co) announced to the market their intention to acquire Pinnacle Foods for an enterprise value of $6bln. With the prospects of more leverage looming, investors sent the 5 year risk premium through the roof and it traded all the way up from 90bps to 140bps in very healthy volumes. Today,  Pilgrim's Pride Corp , a US unit of Brazilian meat company  JBS SA , made an unsolicited $6.4bln takeover offer (or $45/share) for SLE in order to derail their expansion plan. The stock of SLE traded instantaneously at the $45 offer level (22% higher than the level where  SLE’s stock settled post the Pinnacle deal announcement), indicating that investors believe in the success of this hostile take-over, and that they consider the Pinnacle deal dead. The press release indicated that the financing would be done through PPC, which seems to read that SLE would become an orphan reference entity. The reaction from the credit market was almost as fast, and the 5 year CDS of SLE traded all the way back to 90bps. It will eventually go lower once the deal is done and dusted.»

Question: How much of Conagra's debt was transferred to Lamb Weston after the spin-off?

Reasoning: Let's think step by step in order to determine the amount of debt transferred to Lamb Weston. From the context, we know that half of Conagra's debt was pushed to Lamb Weston after the spin-off.

Answer: Half of Conagra's debt was transferred to Lamb Weston after the spin-off.

---

Context:
[1] «CAG ( Conagra Brands Inc. )  was a 12BUSD revenues food US company based in Chicago. On November 9, 2016, the company completed the spin-off of Lamb Weston - essentially its frozen potato fries  business (a 4BUSD revenue business). French fries and any sort of fried potatoes is a sound investment. Half of the debt of Conagra was pushed to the new company LW (( Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. ). From a BBB- company, the new Conagra is now BBB while  Lamb Weston is a BB. According to last Friday’s ISDA determination committee, a CDS holder having 1MUSD protection on CAG is now having 500k on new CAG and 500k on LW.  New CAG is indicated 20bps tighter while LW is 40bps wider. CAG is also a member of the investment grade credit indices in the US, the CDX.IG, in all series up to the latest the series 27. All credit indices members will also be split and will have 126 reference entities, CAG and LW being half weighted. This credit event is a source of large operations for credit derivatives trade processing in the next days.

Meanwhile, the broader credit market went through a slow session with European investment grade risk being the weakest part of the investment spectrum.
»
[2] «A fortnight ago, SLE (Hillshire Brands Co) announced to the market their intention to acquire Pinnacle Foods for an enterprise value of $6bln. With the prospects of more leverage looming, investors sent the 5 year risk premium through the roof and it traded all the way up from 90bps to 140bps in very healthy volumes. Today,  Pilgrim's Pride Corp , a US unit of Brazilian meat company  JBS SA , made an unsolicited $6.4bln takeover offer (or $45/share) for SLE in order to derail their expansion plan. The stock of SLE traded instantaneously at the $45 offer level (22% higher than the level where  SLE’s stock settled post the Pinnacle deal announcement), indicating that investors believe in the success of this hostile take-over, and that they consider the Pinnacle deal dead. The press release indicated that the financing would be done through PPC, which seems to read that SLE would become an orphan reference entity. The reaction from the credit market was almost as fast, and the 5 year CDS of SLE traded all the way back to 90bps. It will eventually go lower once the deal is done and dusted.»
[3] «A month ago, there was a first alert on MRWLN (Wm. Morrisson Supermarkets Plc) when Elliott Associates built a stake in the company. Rumours that a leveraging of the company via a spin-off of their property assets was in the cards were flying around back then. The 5 year CDS never recovered completely and it only participate reluctantly in the recent rally. Today, it took a second leg wider when it was said that the founding family had approached private equity funds such as CVC Capital and Carlyle. Analysts are divided on the feasibility of what would be a $13bln deal, but the market decided it was better safe than sorry and the name was marked 20bps wider (i.e. 1% in cash price) on the day.»
[4] «WHR ( Whirlpool Corporation ) got punished today for missing analysts’ forecasts with third quarter profits. Despite sales rising to $5.42bln – up from $5.24bln last year -, earnings per share fell short 7cts short of expectations at $3.83. The company also lowered its full year projection to $13.6 to $13.9, down from $15. The outlook for the full year 2017 renewed concerns that WHR struggles to integrate Indesit SpA - in which it bought a majority stake roughly 3 years ago – and cannot keep its costs in check. To add insult to injury, it also emerged that Sears has decided to end a century-long partnership and will stop stocking products from Maytag, KitchenAid and Jenn-Air. The retailer balked at paying WHR higher prices, arguing that it would no longer be able to sell Whirlpool products at a competitive price if it acquiesced to the latest demands from the white good maker. WHR’s stock took a bath and was down 10%, while its 5-year risk premium shot up 7bps to 70bps.  »
[5] «Roughly a year ago, SPLS’s (Staples Inc) attempt to buy ODP (Office Depot Inc) for $6.3Bln was thwarted by antitrust regulators. A tough year ensued after its CEO stepped down, during which the company scrambled for a plan B, closing stores and seeking to recast itself as a source of business services. It looks as if these transformation efforts seduced Sycamore though. They announced yesterday night that they are ready to bid $6.9Bln to buy SPLS in what could be the largest LBO announced this year. Even though a deal had been rumoured for some time – it was reported in May that a takeover offer from Cerberus had been rejected because it was too low -, investors initially sent SPLS’s 5-year risk premium soaring 50bps wider at 350bps, as such deals inevitably mean more debt. But soon it transpired that Sycamore, in a similar move to what it did when it bought Jones Group in 2014 and split it in 4 different independent operating companies, could divide SPLS into three different entities: US retail, Canadian retail and corporate-supply business. It inevitably raised the question of where the debt will sit and which entity (or entities) CDS currently referencing SPLS will cover. The answer is not necessarily the most leveraged. The CDS gave up all its widening and more, to close 25bps tighter on the day at 272bps. »

Question: What was the revenue size of the spun-off business, Lamb Weston?

Reasoning: Let's think step by step in order to produce the answer. We know from the context that Lamb Weston was essentially the frozen potato fries business spun off from Conagra Brands Inc. The context also mentions that Lamb Weston had a revenue size of 4 billion USD.

Answer: The revenue size of the spun-off business, Lamb Weston, was 4 billion USD.

---

Context:
[1] «CAG ( Conagra Brands Inc. )  was a 12BUSD revenues food US company based in Chicago. On November 9, 2016, the company completed the spin-off of Lamb Weston - essentially its frozen potato fries  business (a 4BUSD revenue business). French fries and any sort of fried potatoes is a sound investment. Half of the debt of Conagra was pushed to the new company LW (( Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. ). From a BBB- company, the new Conagra is now BBB while  Lamb Weston is a BB. According to last Friday’s ISDA determination committee, a CDS holder having 1MUSD protection on CAG is now having 500k on new CAG and 500k on LW.  New CAG is indicated 20bps tighter while LW is 40bps wider. CAG is also a member of the investment grade credit indices in the US, the CDX.IG, in all series up to the latest the series 27. All credit indices members will also be split and will have 126 reference entities, CAG and LW being half weighted. This credit event is a source of large operations for credit derivatives trade processing in the next days.

Meanwhile, the broader credit market went through a slow session with European investment grade risk being the weakest part of the investment spectrum.
»
[2] «Back in March, METFNL ( Metro AG ) announced that it would proceed with a demerger, in order to separate its food business (Food Co) from  its Consumer Electronics business (CE Co). METFNL held a conference call on the 6th September to give further details regarding the operation. All the financial liabilities of the group including bonds will be assumed by Food Co. Pension liabilities will be allocated 40% to Food Co and 60% to CE Co. Lease obligations will be 60% and 40%, and cash balances 75% and 25% respectively. Even though METFNL’s management expects both companies to maintain an investment grade rating after the spin-off, there won’t be any capital increase. That means that Food Co, due to the high debt load, will have at best weak credit metrics for its rating category and will be left with very limited financial leeway. Moody’s is understood to effectively ask the management to do more if Food Co is to be eligible for IG rating. That is probably why METFNL which will reference Food Co going forward has underperformed its peers during the last week. 
Meanwhile, the broader credit market spent another day looking at US interest rates. It dithered all session, and was unable to decide whether to go wider or tighter. Credit indices traded in a range (328/335 for iTraxx Crossover and 69/72 for iTraxx Main) and eventually closed bang in the middle of it.
»
[3] «Over the last week, the credit market in the US has been very stable, especially in the investment grade universe. The fair value of the CDX IG 5y series 22 has barely moved, going from 63.1bps to 62.7bps. This index has moved a tad more quickly as the basis is now in negative territory and heads towards the 20cts level. But that stability at a macro level masks some dispersion when you drill down to individual companies. If most of the names were well behaved, others have experienced wild swings on the back of M&A; activity. SLE (Hillshire Brands Co) was the main casualty after the company announced their intention to acquire Pinnacle Foods Inc for $6.6bln raising questions regarding their future leverage and pushing the 5 year CDS 55bps wider, from 87.5bps to 142.5bps. At the other end of the spectrum, DTV (Direc TV) was the star performer after SBC (AT&T; Inc) said they are in talks to acquire the largest US satellite-TV provider, sending its 5 year risk premium 29bps tighter from 85.5 to 56.5bps.»
[4] «Overnight 3G Capital Partners and Berkshire Hathaway have offered to merge Kraft Foods Group with HNZ (HJ Heinz Company) to create The Kraft Heinz Co. 3G and Berkshire will own 51% on the new company, while existing Kraft shareholders will get 49% and a $16.5 special dividend. Importantly for the CDS market, no new debt will be issued and the management announced that they are committed to maintaining an investment grade rating going forward. The operation is effectively removing the LBO risk which was overhanging on the food and beverage sector as 3G now appears committed (at least in the medium term). So entire complex traded better today, but the most spectacular move was seen in HNZ’s 5 year CDS which gapped 119bps to 64bps as investors expect it to be a dead box going forward.»
[5] «The credit market closed almost unchanged on most indices, even though the range was 3bps on iTraxx Main and 10bps on iTraxx Crossover. This grapple shows that winners balanced losers and most investment grade names were little changed. The notable exceptions were names in the news: SUEDZU (Suedzucker Mannheim Ochsenfurt AG) spooked investors with a profit warning and slashed EBITDA estimates for 2015 on the back of increasing competition and rising inventories, while BOUY (Bouygues SA) was rewarded for considering the sale of their Telecom unit to Illiad. HOLZSW (Holcim Ltdtion) is still stubbornly refusing to go wider, as Moody’s said the merged entity with Lafarge would be in investment grade territory, forcing more shorts out of their position. »

Question: What were the credit ratings for Conagra and Lamb Weston after the spin-off?

Reasoning: Let's think step by step in order to determine the credit ratings for Conagra and Lamb Weston after the spin-off. From the context, we know that Conagra's credit rating went from BBB- to BBB, while Lamb Weston's credit rating is BB.

Answer: Conagra's credit rating after the spin-off was BBB, and Lamb Weston's credit rating was BB.

---

Context:
[1] «Over the last fortnight, MONTE’s ( Banca Monte dei Paschi  ) stock has roughly doubled. The 5-year risk premium of its senior debt has been cut by 125bps to 350bps since late September. This morning, it looked as if this amazing ride could continue for a while. The company outlined plans to eliminate 2,600 jobs, shut 500 branches and slash the lender's €28Bln pile of bad loans. That sent the stock another 20% up and the debt risk premium another 20bps tighter. To complete its turnaround, the bank also needs to raise €5Bln in fresh capital by year end though, and the CEO admitted that his effort had only begun in that respect. The plan involves a voluntary debt to equity swap, in order to cut the amount MONTE would need to raise from shareholders. The bank wants to spin off €28Bln of souring loan, swap debt for equity and manage a capital increase all at the same time in an exceptionally compressed timeframe. To make things trickier still, there is the December 4 constitutional referendum in Italy which could lead to a increased volatility towards the end of the year. When that reality hit investors, they sent the stock 30% down from its - 15% down on the day  -and the risk premium back to almost unchanged on the day.
 »
[2] «Once the results of the Italian referendum were known, MONTE’s ( Banca Monte dei Paschi  ) board asked to the ECB an extension from the end of the year to Jan. 20 of the deadline set for its recapitalisation exercise “due to the changed reference context”. A delay would have allowed the bank more time to find investors while Italian leaders put a new government in place following the resignation of Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. Early in the afternoon, it emerged that the ECB rejected the bank’s request, increasing the likelihood of a state bailout that would impose losses on shareholders and bondholders. Up to that point, the credit market had been back on the bullish trajectory it has followed since Monday. If the news was not enough to derail the whole market (iTraxx Main closed 1.5bps at 72.5bps and iTraxx Crossover 8bps tighter at 306.5bps), it reversed the trend of iTraxx Financial Senior and Subordinated which closed 1bps wider at 98bps (2bps off the intraday tights) and 3.5bps wider at 225.5bps (12bps off the intraday tights) respectively. On Monday, we might learn how systemically important MONTE really is…»
[3] «Italian banks have been much talked about over the last few sessions. Positive vibes first came during the week-end when Banca Popolare Di Milano and BPIM ( Banca Popolare SC ) won shareholders’ approval for a merger creating Italy’s third largest lender. Today, MONTE’s ( Banca Monte dei Paschi  ) board met after asking their CEO to look into a proposal by Mr Passera, Italy’s ex-minister for economic development and former CEO of Intesa Sanpaolo, to shore up its finances. The plan envisions a €5Bln capital increase, which would include a €1Bln share sale to existing shareholders and €2.5Bln from new long terms backers. While volumes traded on peripheral banks are still dwarfed by transactions on DB, these string of positive news enabled them to outperformed their peers recently and they are the brightest green spots in the above grapple.

Meanwhile, the broader credit market also benefitted from the better tone in the financial sector and from a few earnings beats which buoyed the equity market. Until tomorrow night, iTraxx Main and CDXIG could find it difficult to trade significantly away from their current levels (72.5bps and 75bps respectively) as these are important pins for options expiring late in the afternoon.
»
[4] «MONTE ( Banca Monte dei Paschi  ) gave some details about their debt for equity exchange yesterday night. They plan to offer equity worth between 85% and 100% of face value to the holders of their €4.3Bln outstanding subordinated bonds. The generous terms reflect the need to deliver on this transaction as fully as possible. Indeed, they want to keep the amount of fresh external equity to be raised to a minimum, as the €5Bln total capital increase planned before the end of the year is instrumental in a process that should lead to the deconsolidation of their almost €28Bln portfolio of non-performing loans. Renewed confidence in the success of the deal led investors to send MONTE’s 5-year risk premium 12bps tighter to 392bps, and benefitted the whole Italian complex which outperformed other members of the European financial sector.

Meanwhile, the broader credit market benefitted from the stabilisation of interest rates in Europe and in the US which held onto their overnight (modest) gains throughout the session. iTraxx Crossover and CDX High Yield were the outperformers (closing 9bps and 16bps tighter at 341bps and 418bps respectively), while iTraxx Main (ITXEB) and CDX IG closed 1.5bps and 3bps tighter at 77.5bps and 75bps respectively. Tomorrow is option expiry day on credit indices, and chances are that ITXEB will be attracted by the 75bps strike which represents an important option pin.
»
[5] «On Friday, it emerged that Fortress Investment Group and Elliott Capital Management had dropped out of talks to buy bad loans from MONTE ( Banca Monte dei Paschi  ) complicating the rescue plan for the lender backed by the Italian government. They were the only international bidders for the riskier tranches of MONTE’s bad loan securitization. That leaves Atlante, the fund set up to help the struggling Italian banking sector, as the only potential buyer and jeopardizes the asset sale, which is a key part of the plan to restructure the bank with a capital injection from the state, after MONTE failed to shore up capital privately. Ultimately, it could also make similar rescue plans for two other northern Italian lenders, Veneto Banca Spa and Popolare Vicenza Spa, much more difficult to pull off. Surprisingly, if MONTE’s 5-year risk premium was marked aggressively wider - insuring senior debt now costs 330bps per year, while insuring subordinated costs 73.5% upfront -, it did not feed through the whole Italian banking sector and most names were actually unchanged to a tad tighter.»

Question: What is the intended purpose of the capital increase by Banca Monte dei Paschi?

Reasoning: Let's think step by step in order to determine the intended purpose of the capital increase by Banca Monte dei Paschi. From the context, we know that the capital increase planned by Banca Monte dei Paschi is instrumental in a process that should lead to the deconsolidation of their almost €28 billion portfolio of non-performing loans.

Answer: The intended purpose of the capital increase by Banca Monte dei Paschi is to lead to the deconsolidation of their almost €28 billion portfolio of non-performing loans.

Let’s perform the evaluation of this RAG on the devset:

evaluate(compiled_rag, metric=llm_metric)
  0%|          | 0/10 [00:00<?, ?it/s]

Test Question: What sectors does NXP Semiconductors NV primarily supply chips for?
Predicted Answer: NXP Semiconductors NV primarily supplies chips for the auto industry, including applications like advanced driver assistance systems, infotainment, and in-vehicle networking.


Average Metric: 4.0 / 1  (400.0):  10%|█         | 1/10 [00:00<00:04,  2.23it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: What are some of the applications of NXP's chips in the auto industry?
Predicted Answer: Some of the applications of NXP's chips in the auto industry include advanced driver assistance systems, "infotainment," and in-vehicle networking between different car systems.


Average Metric: 8.0 / 2  (400.0):  20%|██        | 2/10 [00:00<00:03,  2.21it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: How did NXP's Q1 2016 earnings report compare to analysts' expectations?
Predicted Answer: NXP's Q1 2016 earnings report was in line with analysts' expectations.


Average Metric: 11.4 / 3  (380.0):  30%|███       | 3/10 [00:01<00:03,  2.25it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 2
Overall: 5
Test Question: What did NXP's management say about the demand and market conditions during their earnings report?
Predicted Answer: NXP's management mentioned that the overall demand continues to be subdued, but they also stated that headwinds experienced last year should begin to subside in the coming quarter.


Average Metric: 15.4 / 4  (385.0):  40%|████      | 4/10 [00:01<00:02,  2.18it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: What was NXP's revenue and gross margin outlook for Q2, and how did it compare to the consensus estimates?
Predicted Answer: NXP's revenue outlook for Q2 was $2.3-2.4 billion, slightly ahead of the consensus of $2.3 billion, and the gross margin outlook was 49.5-50.5%, slightly ahead of the consensus of 49.8%.


Average Metric: 19.4 / 5  (388.0):  50%|█████     | 5/10 [00:02<00:02,  2.13it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: What steps has Ball taken to win regulatory approval for its acquisition of Rexam?
Predicted Answer: Ball has agreed to sell plants in Brazil and Europe, along with innovation and support functions in several countries, to ARGID (Ardagh Packaging) to satisfy regulatory concerns for its acquisition of Rexam.


Average Metric: 23.4 / 6  (390.0):  60%|██████    | 6/10 [00:02<00:01,  2.05it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: Who is acquiring the assets divested by Ball and Rexam, and what is the significance of this acquisition?
Predicted Answer: ARGID (Ardagh Packaging) is acquiring the assets divested by Ball and Rexam, and this acquisition is significant as it enables ARGID to acquire assets with combined revenues of around $3 billion and will cost the company approximately $3.4 billion.


Average Metric: 27.4 / 7  (391.4):  70%|███████   | 7/10 [00:03<00:01,  2.03it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: Why did ARGID's risk premium not participate in the recent rally of the iTraxx Crossover index?
Predicted Answer: ARGID's risk premium did not participate in the recent rally of the iTraxx Crossover index because investors were skewed towards buying protection on individual names like ARGID, even though the overall index was trading tighter.


Average Metric: 27.4 / 8  (342.5):  80%|████████  | 8/10 [00:03<00:00,  2.07it/s]

Faithful: No
Detail: 5
Overall: 1
Error for example in dev set:          could not convert string to float: 'No'
Test Question: How did the market react to the announcement regarding ARGID's involvement in the Ball-Rexam deal?
Predicted Answer: The market reacted to the announcement regarding ARGID's involvement in the Ball-Rexam deal by marking ARGID's 5-year CDS 36bps wider to 452bps.


Average Metric: 31.4 / 9  (348.9):  90%|█████████ | 9/10 [00:04<00:00,  2.22it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: What adjustments did Alcoa Inc make to its global aluminum demand forecast for 2016?
Predicted Answer: Alcoa Inc lowered its forecast for global demand of aluminum in 2016 from a 6% increase to a 5% increase.


Average Metric: 35.4 / 10  (354.0): 100%|██████████| 10/10 [00:07<00:00,  1.40it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Average Metric: 35.4 / 10  (354.0%)
  question answer llm_metric
0 What sectors does NXP Semiconductors NV primarily supply chips for? NXP Semiconductors NV primarily supplies chips for the auto industry, including applications like advanced driver assistance systems, infotainment, and in-vehicle networking. 4.0
1 What are some of the applications of NXP's chips in the auto industry? Some of the applications of NXP's chips in the auto industry include advanced driver assistance systems, "infotainment," and in-vehicle networking between different car systems. 4.0
2 How did NXP's Q1 2016 earnings report compare to analysts' expectations? NXP's Q1 2016 earnings report was in line with analysts' expectations. 3.4
3 What did NXP's management say about the demand and market conditions during their earnings report? NXP's management mentioned that the overall demand continues to be subdued, but they also stated that headwinds experienced last year should begin to subside in... 4.0
4 What was NXP's revenue and gross margin outlook for Q2, and how did it compare to the consensus estimates? NXP's revenue outlook for Q2 was $2.3-2.4 billion, slightly ahead of the consensus of $2.3 billion, and the gross margin outlook was 49.5-50.5%, slightly ahead... 4.0
... 5 more rows not displayed ...
354.0
round(354 / 348 , 2), "small metric improvement only..."
(1.02, 'small metric improvement only...')

We can now use the ‘improved’ RAG system (basically, a ‘better’ lengthier prompt containing several examples (hence the name bootstrap few shot):

compiled_rag("Did the OPEC members decide to cut oil production? When? Where? Why?").answer
'Yes, OPEC members decided to cut oil production. The decision was made during a meeting in Vienna, where they agreed to reduce output by 1.2 million barrels per day and cap it at 32.5 million barrels per day.'

Using DSPy to optimize the RAG system with BayesianSignatureOptimizer

from dspy.teleprompt import BayesianSignatureOptimizer

llm_prompter = dspy.OpenAI(model='gpt-4', max_tokens=2000, model_type='chat')

teleprompter = BayesianSignatureOptimizer(task_model=dspy.settings.lm,
                                          metric=llm_metric,
                                          prompt_model=llm_prompter,
                                          n=5,
                                          verbose=False)

kwargs = dict(num_threads=1, display_progress=True, display_table=0)
third_compiled_rag = teleprompter.compile(RAG(), devset=devset,
                                         optuna_trials_num=3,
                                         max_bootstrapped_demos=4,
                                         max_labeled_demos=4,
                                         eval_kwargs=kwargs)
[WARNING] BayesianSignatureOptimizer has been deprecated and replaced with MIPRO.  BayesianSignatureOptimizer will be removed in a future release. 
WARNING: Projected Language Model (LM) Calls

Please be advised that based on the parameters you have set, the maximum number of LM calls is projected as follows:

- Task Model: 10 examples in dev set * 3 trials * # of LM calls in your program = (30 * # of LM calls in your program) task model calls
- Prompt Model: # data summarizer calls (max 10) + 5 * 1 lm calls in program = 15 prompt model calls

Estimated Cost Calculation:

Total Cost = (Number of calls to task model * (Avg Input Token Length per Call * Task Model Price per Input Token + Avg Output Token Length per Call * Task Model Price per Output Token) 
            + (Number of calls to prompt model * (Avg Input Token Length per Call * Task Prompt Price per Input Token + Avg Output Token Length per Call * Prompt Model Price per Output Token).

For a preliminary estimate of potential costs, we recommend you perform your own calculations based on the task
and prompt models you intend to use. If the projected costs exceed your budget or expectations, you may consider:

- Reducing the number of trials (`num_trials`), the size of the trainset, or the number of LM calls in your program.
- Using a cheaper task model to optimize the prompt.


  0%|          | 0/10 [00:00<?, ?it/s]

Test Question: Who is acquiring the assets divested by Ball and Rexam, and what is the significance of this acquisition?
Predicted Answer: ARGID (Ardagh Packaging) is acquiring the assets divested by Ball and Rexam. This acquisition is significant as it will allow ARGID to acquire assets with combined revenues of around $3 billion, costing the company approximately $3.4 billion, as part of a divestment program to satisfy regulatory concerns related to the Ball-Rexam deal.


 10%|█         | 1/10 [00:00<00:03,  2.38it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: How did the market react to the announcement regarding ARGID's involvement in the Ball-Rexam deal?
Predicted Answer: The market reacted to the announcement regarding ARGID's involvement in the Ball-Rexam deal by marking ARGID's 5-year CDS 36bps wider to 452bps.


 20%|██        | 2/10 [00:00<00:03,  2.44it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: What adjustments did Alcoa Inc make to its global aluminum demand forecast for 2016?
Predicted Answer: Alcoa Inc adjusted its global aluminum demand forecast for 2016 by lowering it from a 6% increase to a 5% increase and decreasing their market deficit projection from 1.2 million metric tons to 1.1 million metric tons.


 30%|███       | 3/10 [00:03<00:09,  1.40s/it]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: Why did ARGID's risk premium not participate in the recent rally of the iTraxx Crossover index?
Predicted Answer: ARGID's risk premium did not participate in the recent rally of the iTraxx Crossover index because it has been dropped from the index and is no longer included in the group of entities being traded.


 40%|████      | 4/10 [00:03<00:05,  1.01it/s]

Faithful: No
Detail: 5
Overall: 1
Failed to run or to evaluate example Example({'question': "Why did ARGID's risk premium not participate in the recent rally of the iTraxx Crossover index?"}) (input_keys={'question'}) with <function llm_metric at 0x7b1624ec8040> due to could not convert string to float: 'No'.
Test Question: What steps has Ball taken to win regulatory approval for its acquisition of Rexam?
Predicted Answer: Ball has agreed with Rexam to sell plants in Brazil and Europe, along with innovation and support functions in several countries, to ARGID (Ardagh Packaging) to satisfy regulatory concerns. This divestment program is subject to regulatory approvals and will enable ARGID to acquire assets with combined revenues of around $3 billion. Additionally, ARGID will issue $2.85 billion of secured and unsecured notes to help finance the operation.


 50%|█████     | 5/10 [00:04<00:04,  1.21it/s]


Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Bootstrapped 4 full traces after 6 examples in round 0.


  0%|          | 0/10 [00:00<?, ?it/s]

Test Question: What steps has Ball taken to win regulatory approval for its acquisition of Rexam?
Predicted Answer: Ball has agreed with Rexam to sell plants in Brazil and Europe, along with innovation and support functions in several countries, to ARGID (Ardagh Packaging) to satisfy regulatory concerns. This divestment program is subject to regulatory approvals and will enable ARGID to acquire assets with combined revenues of around $3 billion. Additionally, ARGID will issue $2.85 billion of secured and unsecured notes to help finance the operation.


 10%|█         | 1/10 [00:00<00:03,  2.74it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: What adjustments did Alcoa Inc make to its global aluminum demand forecast for 2016?
Predicted Answer: Alcoa Inc adjusted its global aluminum demand forecast for 2016 by lowering it from a 6% increase to a 5% increase and decreasing their market deficit projection from 1.2 million metric tons to 1.1 million metric tons.


 20%|██        | 2/10 [00:00<00:02,  2.69it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: What did NXP's management say about the demand and market conditions during their earnings report?
Predicted Answer: The management of NXP stated that overall demand continues to be subdued, but they also mentioned that the headwinds experienced in the previous year should begin to subside in the coming quarter.


 30%|███       | 3/10 [00:01<00:02,  2.49it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5


 40%|████      | 4/10 [00:01<00:02,  2.56it/s]


Test Question: What was NXP's revenue and gross margin outlook for Q2, and how did it compare to the consensus estimates?
Predicted Answer: The revenue outlook for Q2 was $2.3-2.4 billion, slightly above the consensus of $2.3 billion, and the gross margin outlook was 49.5-50.5%, slightly above the consensus of 49.8%.
Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Bootstrapped 4 full traces after 5 examples in round 0.


 10%|█         | 1/10 [00:00<00:02,  3.10it/s]

Test Question: What are some of the applications of NXP's chips in the auto industry?
Predicted Answer: Some of the applications of NXP's chips in the auto industry include advanced driver assistance systems, "infotainment," and in-vehicle networking between different car systems.
Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: What steps has Ball taken to win regulatory approval for its acquisition of Rexam?
Predicted Answer: Ball has agreed with Rexam to sell plants in Brazil and Europe, along with innovation and support functions in several countries, to ARGID (Ardagh Packaging) to satisfy regulatory concerns. This divestment program is subject to regulatory approvals and will enable ARGID to acquire assets with combined revenues of around $3 billion. Additionally, ARGID will issue $2.85 billion of secured and unsecured notes to help finance the operation.
Faithful: 5
Detail: 5


 20%|██        | 2/10 [00:00<00:02,  2.80it/s]

Overall: 5


 30%|███       | 3/10 [00:01<00:02,  2.73it/s]

Test Question: Who is acquiring the assets divested by Ball and Rexam, and what is the significance of this acquisition?
Predicted Answer: ARGID (Ardagh Packaging) is acquiring the assets divested by Ball and Rexam. This acquisition is significant as it will allow ARGID to acquire assets with combined revenues of around $3 billion, costing the company approximately $3.4 billion, as part of a divestment program to satisfy regulatory concerns related to the Ball-Rexam deal.
Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5


 40%|████      | 4/10 [00:01<00:02,  2.81it/s]


Test Question: What sectors does NXP Semiconductors NV primarily supply chips for?
Predicted Answer: NXP Semiconductors NV primarily supplies chips for the smartphone and auto industries.
Faithful: 5
Detail: 2
Overall: 5
Bootstrapped 4 full traces after 5 examples in round 0.


  0%|          | 0/10 [00:00<?, ?it/s]

Test Question: How did the market react to the announcement regarding ARGID's involvement in the Ball-Rexam deal?
Predicted Answer: The market reacted to the announcement regarding ARGID's involvement in the Ball-Rexam deal by marking ARGID's 5-year CDS 36bps wider to 452bps.


 10%|█         | 1/10 [00:00<00:03,  2.49it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: How did NXP's Q1 2016 earnings report compare to analysts' expectations?
Predicted Answer: NXP's Q1 2016 earnings report was in line with analysts' expectations, and the company managed to surprise investors with their numbers.


 20%|██        | 2/10 [00:00<00:02,  2.67it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 3
Overall: 5
Test Question: What sectors does NXP Semiconductors NV primarily supply chips for?
Predicted Answer: NXP Semiconductors NV primarily supplies chips for the smartphone and auto industries.


 30%|███       | 3/10 [00:01<00:02,  2.60it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 2
Overall: 5


 40%|████      | 4/10 [00:01<00:02,  2.63it/s]

Test Question: Why did ARGID's risk premium not participate in the recent rally of the iTraxx Crossover index?
Predicted Answer: ARGID's risk premium did not participate in the recent rally of the iTraxx Crossover index because it has been dropped from the index and is no longer included in the group of entities being traded.
Faithful: No
Detail: 5
Overall: 1
Failed to run or to evaluate example Example({'question': "Why did ARGID's risk premium not participate in the recent rally of the iTraxx Crossover index?"}) (input_keys={'question'}) with <function llm_metric at 0x7b1624ec8040> due to could not convert string to float: 'No'.


 50%|█████     | 5/10 [00:01<00:01,  2.64it/s]

Test Question: Who is acquiring the assets divested by Ball and Rexam, and what is the significance of this acquisition?
Predicted Answer: ARGID (Ardagh Packaging) is acquiring the assets divested by Ball and Rexam. This acquisition is significant as it will allow ARGID to acquire assets with combined revenues of around $3 billion, costing the company approximately $3.4 billion, as part of a divestment program to satisfy regulatory concerns related to the Ball-Rexam deal.
Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Bootstrapped 4 full traces after 6 examples in round 0.



[I 2024-04-14 12:10:27,870] A new study created in memory with name: no-name-3c72ec8f-9362-499c-9f01-4d2ed8528ed8


Starting trial #0


  0%|          | 0/10 [00:00<?, ?it/s]

Test Question: What sectors does NXP Semiconductors NV primarily supply chips for?
Predicted Answer: NXP Semiconductors NV primarily supplies chips for the auto industry, specifically for applications in advanced driver assistance systems, infotainment, and in-vehicle networking between different car systems.


Average Metric: 4.0 / 1  (400.0):  10%|█         | 1/10 [00:00<00:02,  3.03it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: What are some of the applications of NXP's chips in the auto industry?
Predicted Answer: NXP's chips in the auto industry have applications ranging from advanced driver assistance systems to "infotainment" and in-vehicle networking between different car systems.


Average Metric: 8.0 / 2  (400.0):  20%|██        | 2/10 [00:00<00:02,  3.07it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: How did NXP's Q1 2016 earnings report compare to analysts' expectations?
Predicted Answer: NXP's Q1 2016 earnings report was in line with analysts' expectations. The company surprised investors with numbers that met the consensus. Additionally, their Q2 outlook slightly exceeded consensus estimates, with revenues expected to be $2.3-2.4 billion compared to a consensus of $2.3 billion and a gross margin of 49.5-50.5% versus a consensus of 49.8%.


Average Metric: 12.0 / 3  (400.0):  30%|███       | 3/10 [00:01<00:02,  2.82it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: What did NXP's management say about the demand and market conditions during their earnings report?
Predicted Answer: NXP's management mentioned that overall demand continues to be subdued, but they also stated that the headwinds experienced last year should begin to subside in the coming quarter. This cautious optimism led them to present a Q2 outlook that slightly exceeded consensus estimates for revenues and gross margin.


Average Metric: 16.0 / 4  (400.0):  40%|████      | 4/10 [00:01<00:02,  2.82it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: What was NXP's revenue and gross margin outlook for Q2, and how did it compare to the consensus estimates?
Predicted Answer: The revenue outlook for Q2 was $2.3-2.4 billion, slightly above the consensus of $2.3 billion, and the gross margin outlook was 49.5-50.5%, slightly above the consensus of 49.8%.


Average Metric: 20.0 / 5  (400.0):  50%|█████     | 5/10 [00:01<00:01,  2.87it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: What steps has Ball taken to win regulatory approval for its acquisition of Rexam?
Predicted Answer: Ball has agreed with Rexam to sell plants in Brazil and Europe, along with innovation and support functions in several countries, to ARGID (Ardagh Packaging) to satisfy regulatory concerns. This divestment program is subject to regulatory approvals and will enable ARGID to acquire assets with combined revenues of around $3 billion. Additionally, ARGID will issue $2.85 billion of secured and unsecured notes to help finance the operation.


Average Metric: 24.0 / 6  (400.0):  50%|█████     | 5/10 [00:02<00:01,  2.87it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5


Average Metric: 28.0 / 7  (400.0):  70%|███████   | 7/10 [00:02<00:01,  2.73it/s]

Test Question: Who is acquiring the assets divested by Ball and Rexam, and what is the significance of this acquisition?
Predicted Answer: The assets divested by Ball and Rexam are being acquired by ARGID (Ardagh Packaging). This acquisition is significant as it allows ARGID to acquire assets with combined revenues of around $3 billion, costing the company approximately $3.4 billion, and will be financed through the issuance of $2.85 billion of secured and unsecured notes.
Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5


Average Metric: 29.6 / 8  (370.0):  80%|████████  | 8/10 [00:02<00:00,  2.71it/s]

Test Question: Why did ARGID's risk premium not participate in the recent rally of the iTraxx Crossover index?
Predicted Answer: ARGID's risk premium did not participate in the recent rally of the iTraxx Crossover index because they were rumored to be the leading bidders for Ball-Rexam assets, which led investors to mark their 5-year CDS wider. Additionally, the perspective of more leverage due to the acquisition of assets from Ball-Rexam also contributed to investors widening ARGID's risk premium.
Faithful: 1
Detail: 5
Overall: 1
Test Question: How did the market react to the announcement regarding ARGID's involvement in the Ball-Rexam deal?
Predicted Answer: The market reacted to the announcement of ARGID's involvement in the Ball-Rexam deal by widening ARGID's 5-year CDS risk premium by 36bps to 452bps.


Average Metric: 33.6 / 9  (373.3):  90%|█████████ | 9/10 [00:03<00:00,  2.63it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: What adjustments did Alcoa Inc make to its global aluminum demand forecast for 2016?
Predicted Answer: Alcoa Inc adjusted its global aluminum demand forecast for 2016 by lowering it from a projected 6% increase to a 5% increase. Additionally, they decreased their market deficit projection from 1.2 million metric tons to 1.1 million metric tons due to slowing Chinese demand.


Average Metric: 37.6 / 10  (376.0): 100%|██████████| 10/10 [00:03<00:00,  2.71it/s]
[I 2024-04-14 12:10:31,595] Trial 0 finished with value: 376.0 and parameters: {'135334835491440_predictor_instruction': 1, '135334835491440_predictor_demos': 2}. Best is trial 0 with value: 376.0.


Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Average Metric: 37.6 / 10  (376.0%)
Starting trial #1


  0%|          | 0/10 [00:00<?, ?it/s]

Test Question: What sectors does NXP Semiconductors NV primarily supply chips for?
Predicted Answer: NXP Semiconductors NV primarily supplies chips for the auto industry, specifically for applications in advanced driver assistance systems, infotainment, and in-vehicle networking between different car systems.


Average Metric: 4.0 / 1  (400.0):  10%|█         | 1/10 [00:00<00:03,  2.40it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: What are some of the applications of NXP's chips in the auto industry?
Predicted Answer: NXP's chips in the auto industry have applications ranging from advanced driver assistance systems to "infotainment" and in-vehicle networking between different car systems.


Average Metric: 8.0 / 2  (400.0):  20%|██        | 2/10 [00:00<00:03,  2.55it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: How did NXP's Q1 2016 earnings report compare to analysts' expectations?
Predicted Answer: NXP's Q1 2016 earnings report was in line with analysts' expectations. The company surprised investors with numbers that met the consensus. Additionally, their Q2 outlook slightly exceeded consensus estimates, with revenues expected to be $2.3-2.4 billion compared to a consensus of $2.3 billion and a gross margin of 49.5-50.5% versus a consensus of 49.8%.


Average Metric: 12.0 / 3  (400.0):  30%|███       | 3/10 [00:01<00:02,  2.64it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: What did NXP's management say about the demand and market conditions during their earnings report?
Predicted Answer: NXP's management mentioned that overall demand continues to be subdued, but they also stated that the headwinds experienced last year should begin to subside in the coming quarter. This cautious optimism led them to present a Q2 outlook that slightly exceeded consensus estimates for revenues and gross margin.


Average Metric: 16.0 / 4  (400.0):  40%|████      | 4/10 [00:01<00:02,  2.62it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: What was NXP's revenue and gross margin outlook for Q2, and how did it compare to the consensus estimates?
Predicted Answer: The revenue outlook for Q2 was $2.3-2.4 billion, slightly above the consensus of $2.3 billion, and the gross margin outlook was 49.5-50.5%, slightly above the consensus of 49.8%.


Average Metric: 20.0 / 5  (400.0):  50%|█████     | 5/10 [00:01<00:01,  2.68it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: What steps has Ball taken to win regulatory approval for its acquisition of Rexam?
Predicted Answer: Ball has agreed with Rexam to sell plants in Brazil and Europe, along with innovation and support functions in several countries, to ARGID (Ardagh Packaging) to satisfy regulatory concerns. This divestment program is subject to regulatory approvals and will enable ARGID to acquire assets with combined revenues of around $3 billion. Additionally, ARGID will issue $2.85 billion of secured and unsecured notes to help finance the operation.


Average Metric: 24.0 / 6  (400.0):  60%|██████    | 6/10 [00:02<00:01,  2.74it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: Who is acquiring the assets divested by Ball and Rexam, and what is the significance of this acquisition?
Predicted Answer: The assets divested by Ball and Rexam are being acquired by ARGID (Ardagh Packaging). This acquisition is significant as it allows ARGID to acquire assets with combined revenues of around $3 billion, costing the company approximately $3.4 billion, and will be financed through the issuance of $2.85 billion of secured and unsecured notes.


Average Metric: 28.0 / 7  (400.0):  70%|███████   | 7/10 [00:02<00:01,  2.67it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: Why did ARGID's risk premium not participate in the recent rally of the iTraxx Crossover index?
Predicted Answer: ARGID's risk premium did not participate in the recent rally of the iTraxx Crossover index because they were rumored to be the leading bidders for Ball-Rexam assets, which led investors to mark their 5-year CDS wider. Additionally, the perspective of more leverage due to the acquisition of assets from Ball-Rexam also contributed to investors widening ARGID's risk premium.


Average Metric: 29.6 / 8  (370.0):  80%|████████  | 8/10 [00:03<00:00,  2.68it/s]

Faithful: 1
Detail: 5
Overall: 1
Test Question: How did the market react to the announcement regarding ARGID's involvement in the Ball-Rexam deal?
Predicted Answer: The market reacted to the announcement of ARGID's involvement in the Ball-Rexam deal by widening ARGID's 5-year CDS risk premium by 36bps to 452bps.


Average Metric: 33.6 / 9  (373.3):  90%|█████████ | 9/10 [00:03<00:00,  2.74it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: What adjustments did Alcoa Inc make to its global aluminum demand forecast for 2016?
Predicted Answer: Alcoa Inc adjusted its global aluminum demand forecast for 2016 by lowering it from a projected 6% increase to a 5% increase. Additionally, they decreased their market deficit projection from 1.2 million metric tons to 1.1 million metric tons due to slowing Chinese demand.


Average Metric: 37.6 / 10  (376.0): 100%|██████████| 10/10 [00:03<00:00,  2.65it/s]
[I 2024-04-14 12:10:35,414] Trial 1 finished with value: 376.0 and parameters: {'135334835491440_predictor_instruction': 1, '135334835491440_predictor_demos': 2}. Best is trial 0 with value: 376.0.


Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Average Metric: 37.6 / 10  (376.0%)
Starting trial #2


Average Metric: 3.4 / 1  (340.0):   0%|          | 0/10 [00:00<?, ?it/s]

Test Question: What sectors does NXP Semiconductors NV primarily supply chips for?
Predicted Answer: NXP Semiconductors NV primarily supplies chips for the smartphone and auto industries.
Faithful: 5
Detail: 2
Overall: 5


Average Metric: 7.4 / 2  (370.0):  20%|██        | 2/10 [00:00<00:03,  2.64it/s]

Test Question: What are some of the applications of NXP's chips in the auto industry?
Predicted Answer: Some of the applications of NXP's chips in the auto industry include advanced driver assistance systems, "infotainment," and in-vehicle networking between different car systems.
Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5


Average Metric: 11.0 / 3  (366.7):  30%|███       | 3/10 [00:01<00:02,  2.72it/s]

Test Question: How did NXP's Q1 2016 earnings report compare to analysts' expectations?
Predicted Answer: NXP's Q1 2016 earnings report was in line with analysts' expectations, and the company managed to surprise investors with their numbers.
Faithful: 5
Detail: 3
Overall: 5


Average Metric: 15.0 / 4  (375.0):  30%|███       | 3/10 [00:01<00:02,  2.72it/s]

Test Question: What did NXP's management say about the demand and market conditions during their earnings report?
Predicted Answer: The management of NXP stated that overall demand continues to be subdued, but they also mentioned that the headwinds experienced in the previous year should begin to subside in the coming quarter.
Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5


Average Metric: 19.0 / 5  (380.0):  50%|█████     | 5/10 [00:01<00:01,  2.77it/s]

Test Question: What was NXP's revenue and gross margin outlook for Q2, and how did it compare to the consensus estimates?
Predicted Answer: The revenue outlook for Q2 was $2.3-2.4 billion, slightly above the consensus of $2.3 billion, and the gross margin outlook was 49.5-50.5%, slightly above the consensus of 49.8%.
Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5


Average Metric: 23.0 / 6  (383.3):  60%|██████    | 6/10 [00:02<00:01,  2.71it/s]

Test Question: What steps has Ball taken to win regulatory approval for its acquisition of Rexam?
Predicted Answer: Ball has agreed with Rexam to sell plants in Brazil and Europe, along with innovation and support functions in several countries, to ARGID (Ardagh Packaging) to satisfy regulatory concerns. This divestment program is subject to regulatory approvals and will enable ARGID to acquire assets with combined revenues of around $3 billion. Additionally, ARGID will issue $2.85 billion of secured and unsecured notes to help finance the operation.
Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5


Average Metric: 27.0 / 7  (385.7):  70%|███████   | 7/10 [00:02<00:01,  2.62it/s]

Test Question: Who is acquiring the assets divested by Ball and Rexam, and what is the significance of this acquisition?
Predicted Answer: ARGID (Ardagh Packaging) is acquiring the assets divested by Ball and Rexam. This acquisition is significant as it will allow ARGID to acquire assets with combined revenues of around $3 billion, costing the company approximately $3.4 billion, as part of a divestment program to satisfy regulatory concerns related to the Ball-Rexam deal.
Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: Why did ARGID's risk premium not participate in the recent rally of the iTraxx Crossover index?
Predicted Answer: ARGID's risk premium did not participate in the recent rally of the iTraxx Crossover index because it has been dropped from the index and is no longer included in the group of entities being traded.


Average Metric: 27.0 / 8  (337.5):  80%|████████  | 8/10 [00:02<00:00,  2.64it/s]

Faithful: No
Detail: 5
Overall: 1
Error for example in dev set:          could not convert string to float: 'No'
Test Question: How did the market react to the announcement regarding ARGID's involvement in the Ball-Rexam deal?
Predicted Answer: The market reacted to the announcement regarding ARGID's involvement in the Ball-Rexam deal by marking ARGID's 5-year CDS 36bps wider to 452bps.


Average Metric: 31.0 / 9  (344.4):  90%|█████████ | 9/10 [00:03<00:00,  2.63it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: What adjustments did Alcoa Inc make to its global aluminum demand forecast for 2016?
Predicted Answer: Alcoa Inc adjusted its global aluminum demand forecast for 2016 by lowering it from a 6% increase to a 5% increase and decreasing their market deficit projection from 1.2 million metric tons to 1.1 million metric tons.


Average Metric: 35.0 / 10  (350.0): 100%|██████████| 10/10 [00:03<00:00,  2.69it/s]
[I 2024-04-14 12:10:39,175] Trial 2 finished with value: 350.0 and parameters: {'135334835491440_predictor_instruction': 0, '135334835491440_predictor_demos': 0}. Best is trial 0 with value: 376.0.


Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Average Metric: 35.0 / 10  (350.0%)
Returning generate_answer = ChainOfThought(GenerateAnswer(context, question -> answer
    instructions='Answer questions based on the context.'
    context = Field(annotation=str required=True json_schema_extra={'desc': 'may contain relevant facts', '__dspy_field_type': 'input', 'prefix': 'Context:'})
    question = Field(annotation=str required=True json_schema_extra={'__dspy_field_type': 'input', 'prefix': 'Question:', 'desc': '${question}'})
    answer = Field(annotation=str required=True json_schema_extra={'__dspy_field_type': 'output', 'prefix': 'Answer:', 'desc': '${answer}'})
)) from continue_program
third_compiled_rag("How did FirstEnergy's cash reserves stand at the end of 2019, and what was the trend over the previous five years?").answer
"The context does not provide information about FirstEnergy's cash reserves at the end of 2019 or the trend over the previous five years."

We can observe that the ‘meta’ prompt of the RAG has been re-written from the generic Answer questions based on the context. to the more precise Based on the provided business and financial contexts, provide detailed and specific answers that fully address the posed questions, drawing explicitly from the information given.:

dspy.settings.lm.inspect_history(n=1)
Based on the provided business and financial contexts, provide detailed and specific answers that fully address the posed questions, drawing explicitly from the information given.

---

Follow the following format.

Context: may contain relevant facts

Question: ${question}

Reasoning: Let's think step by step in order to ${produce the answer}. We ...

Answer: ${answer}

---

Context:
[1] «In February 2015, Ball agreed to acquire Rexam in a deal that would combine two of the world’s largest makers of cans for drinks, and it has been trying since to win regulatory approval for the deal. Today, it announced that it had agreed with Rexam to sell plants in Brazil and Europe together with innovation and support functions in Brazil, Britain, Germany, Switzerland and the United States to ARGID (Ardagh Packaging) to satisfy some of these regulatory concerns. This divestment program itself is subject to regulatory approvals, but it should enable ARGID to acquire assets with combined revenues of around $3bln and will cost the company approximately $3.4bln. To help finance the operation, ARGID will issue $2.85bln of secured and unsecured notes in the coming weeks. They had been rumoured to be the leading bidders for Ball-Rexam assets for a while, and that is the reason why the risk premium of ARGID never really participated in the rally that took iTraxx Crossover from 336bps on the April 8th to 294bps last Friday. Nevertheless, the quasi-certain perspective of more leverage led investors to mark ARGID’s 5 year CDS 36bps wider (to 452bps) today.»
[2] «This morning, BATSLN ( British American Tobacco Plc ) offered to merge with RAI ( Reynolds American, Inc. ). BATSLN already owns 42% of RAI, and the offer targets the remaining 58%. Over the past few years, several failed attempts were made to take full ownership with a view to create a geographically diverse group, since RAI is focused on the US and BATSLN is weighted towards everywhere else. There would also be scope for scale economies in R&D; for smokeless technologies, justifying the high multiples of the transaction – 16.3 times 12-month trailing Ebitda -. The current proposal values RAI at $56.5/share – that is a 20% premium to yesterday’s close – of which $24.13 will be cash, but discussions have not begun between the two companies and RAI was said to want a higher premium. In any case, the total cash contribution should be in excess of $20Bln and investors are expecting a heavy bond issuance to finance the deal which will increase leverage by roughly one time. They send BATSLN’s 5-year risk premium 7bps wider at 65bps without waiting for the final details of the operation.

Meanwhile, the broader credit market was quiet, and traded volumes on credit indices stood 30 to 40% below average. While risk premia were a touch wider across the board, moves were kept minimal.
»
[3] «According to various press reports, Altria, which controls 27% of SABLN ( SAB Miller Plc ), recently pulled out of a conference appearance to follow up on a similar action by ABIBB ( Anheuser Busch Inbev SA ). People were quick to think something was brewing and today ABIBB confirmed it had made an approach to SABLN’s board. This acquisition would be the biggest in the industry history and would cap more than a decade of consolidation across brewing companies, as consolidation has been used as a way to stave off a slowdown in established markets such as Europe and the US. Even though a deal is currently much more affordable because the price action of SABLN’s has been weak over the last 6 months, the deal would likely cost ABIBB more than $100bln. If both the stocks of both company reacted positively, that is a big number and investors pushed ABIBB’s 5 year risk premium 11bps wider to 79bps, the most in almost 3 years.»
[4] «Today, RAI (Reynolds American, Inc) and Lorillard Inc. announced that they are proceeding with their merger, in a $27.4bln deal that will see RAI become a bigger competitor to U.S. market leader MO (Altria Group Inc). In line with recent press speculation, IMTLN (Imperial Tobacco Group Plc) will acquire $7.1bln worth of assets from the merged entity. In the process, IMTLN will lever up to a level that is not compatible with an IG rating, and the market has recently punished them for that, putting today the final touch to a 20bps widening in a little less than 10 days. But the company has clearly discussed the transaction with the rating agencies before the announcement, and Moody’s was able to reaffirm their rating very quickly, whilst putting them on negative outlook. That last bit is there to make sure that they use some of their ridiculous cash generation towards deleveraging and that they respect a strict timescale to do so. With that in mind, most of the damage to the 5 year risk premium of IMTLN might already be behind us.»
[5] «Yesterday ABIBB ( Anheuser Busch Inbev SA ) made a formal $107bln offer to buy SABLN ( SABMiller plc ), sealing a long anticipated deal that combine the world’s biggest brewers to form a company that will have the number one or two position in 24 of the world’s 30 biggest beer markets according to analysts. To back the acquisition, ABIBB said it obtained the biggest corporate loan on record, $75bln. In the future part of the loans will be replaced by bonds, and the brewer is said to be planning to sell $55bln of bonds across multiple currency and maturities. When it happens, this sale will also be a record. It will exceed the $49bln of bonds that VZ ( Verizon Communications Inc ) issued two years ago to fund its buyout of VOD’s ( Vodafone Group plc ) stake in a wireless venture. But while in September 2013, VZ’s 5 year risk premium jumped 30bps from 70 to 100bps when the jumbo deal was announced, ABIBB’s 5 year risk premium hardly moved at all. It widened today by 2bps to 81bps, which is merely in line with the rest of the market ( iTraxx Main, the barometer of European investment grade credit, widened 3bps to 73.5bps).»

Question: What steps has Ball taken to win regulatory approval for its acquisition of Rexam?

Reasoning: Let's think step by step in order to produce the answer. We need to look at the context provided to understand the actions Ball has taken to win regulatory approval for its acquisition of Rexam.

Answer: Ball has agreed with Rexam to sell plants in Brazil and Europe, along with innovation and support functions in several countries, to ARGID (Ardagh Packaging) to satisfy regulatory concerns. This divestment program is subject to regulatory approvals and will enable ARGID to acquire assets with combined revenues of around $3 billion. Additionally, ARGID will issue $2.85 billion of secured and unsecured notes to help finance the operation.

---

Context:
[1] «Yesterday saw the earnings reporting season ‘s starting whistle for Q1 blown by AA ( Alcoa Inc ). They got things started after the closing bell, and the numbers were fairly mixed. While earnings came in above consensus, they missed on revenues. They also lowered their forecast for global demand of aluminium in 2016 – they expect it to climb 5% whereas previously their projection was a 6% increase – and they decreased their market deficit projection – they estimate a 1.1 million metric tons deficit in 2016 versus 1.2 million 3 months ago – as Chinese demand slows. That made AA one of the few names that saw their 5 year risk premium widen (+10bps at 405bps) in an otherwise constructive session. Even if it currently stands far off its February highs of 44%, it means the market assigns a 31% probability to an AA default over during the next 5 years.»
[2] «Like every other quarter, AA ( Alcoa Inc ) will be among the first to report at the very beginning of the second week of October. But while the results might get any scrutiny and generate some volatility as commodity related names have been under the spotlight recently, AA already proved over the last few days that it is not a credit for the faint hearted. On Monday, the company announced its plan to break itself in two by separating its manufacturing operations (the “Value-Add” business still to be named) from the legacy smelting and refining business (which will retain the Alcoa name) that is struggling to overcome booming production from China. Investors were unsure where the debt might end up, and they feared that the bonds might go to the less attractive part of the business, i.e. Alcoa. Accordingly, they sent AA’s 5 year risk premium 140bps wider at 457bps, meaning that a 5 year bond lost roughly 7cts on the dollar on that day. The company management issued a statement late yesterday saying that “Alcoa’s current intent is that the debt of Alcoa would be retained by the Value-Add company for which Alcoa is targeting an investment grade rating”. Guess what? AA’s 5 year risk premium closed at 335bps tonight.»
[3] «We already had a trickle of results in the past few weeks, but the reporting season begun in earnest today. Over the next few weeks, all major companies will be releasing third numbers on both sides of the Atlantic. As is now customary, AA ( Alcoa Inc ) kicked off the proceedings, and they did it in style. The 128-year-old company reported their last earnings before splitting into two entities - the newly branded Arconic which will service aerospace and automotive industries, and the new Alcoa which will focus on their mining and smelting operations in bauxite, alumina and aluminium products – and missed both earnings (32cts/share vs 34cts expected) and revenue (total sales fell to $5.2Bln vs $5.33Bln expected) estimates. More importantly, they lowered Q4 and year-end guidance, adding that next year’s outlook was “very hard” to read. Investors punished the stock and marked it 10% lower, while they sent AA’s 5-year risk premium 17.5bps wider at 250bps, still a long way away from the 650bps it reached at the very beginning of the year though.

Meanwhile, the broader credit market was on the back foot. Credit indices suffered as US equities felt the brunt of a strong dollar and the disappointing start to the earning season. In Europe iTraxx Main and iTraxx Crossover closed 1bp and 4.5bps  wider at 74.5bps and 335bps respectively, while, in the US, CDXIG was 1bp wider at 75bps and CDXHY 2bps wider at 404bps.
»
[4] «The reporting season is only beginning, and this used to be the time of the year when Alcoa was systematically mentioned as it used to be the first corporate to announce its results. Part of the company, which produces and distributes aerospace products, split from Alcoa Corporation, which produces and sells bauxite, alumina and aluminium products, and is now known as ARNC ( Arconic Inc ). It will report in a couple of weeks. Nevertheless, it attracted most of the headlines in the US credit market today. As of Friday, its stock was down 44% from the high it reached mid-January. It had suffered from tensions concerning the US aluminium and steel tariffs that have roiled metal producers. It is in this context that the Wall Street Journal reported late on Friday that private equity firms would be circling the company. Even though it is facing operational challenges, its weak cash generation and attractive valuation offer potential buyers a favourable entry point according to analysts. LBOs are synonymous of increased leverage, and while they sent ARNC’s stock 10% higher, investors pushed the company’s 5-year risk premium 85bps wider at 283bps.»
[5] «In August, ARNC ( Arconic Inc ) announced it was considering selling its building and construction systems unit which makes facades, windows and framing products. On Tuesday, when it reported better than expected quarterly profit and raised its full-year earnings forecast, it said the sale process was under way and had drawn robust interest. Under such circumstances, one would probably expect ARNC’s risk premium to tighten. But during the same earning meeting, the management also announced that the scope of the strategy and portfolio review initiated in February was being extended and its scope broadened “to address additional scenarios”. That gave weight to rumours that private equity firms are circling the company, with Apollo Global Management supposedly about to make an offer in excess of $11bln for the aluminium products maker. With LBO risks gathering and leverage potentially about to be propelled higher, investors in fact pushed ARNC’s 5-year risk premium above 400bps for the first time since 2016. »

Question: What adjustments did Alcoa Inc make to its global aluminum demand forecast for 2016?

Reasoning: Let's think step by step in order to produce the answer. We know from the context that Alcoa Inc adjusted its global aluminum demand forecast for 2016. They initially projected a 6% increase in demand but later revised it to a 5% increase. Additionally, they decreased their market deficit projection from 1.2 million metric tons to 1.1 million metric tons due to slowing Chinese demand.

Answer: Alcoa Inc adjusted its global aluminum demand forecast for 2016 by lowering it from a 6% increase to a 5% increase and decreasing their market deficit projection from 1.2 million metric tons to 1.1 million metric tons.

---

Context:
[1] «NXP ( NXP Semiconductors NV ) is a leading chip supplier for smartphones, but it is also a major supplier of chips for the auto industry following its recent acquisition of FSL (Freescale Semiconductor). These chips have a wide range of applications, from advanced driver assistance systems to “infotainment” or in-vehicle networking between different car systems. NXP’s strength in the auto industry is one of the reasons the company managed to surprise investors when it reported Q1 2016 numbers this morning, which were in line with analysts’ expectations. More importantly, even though management said the overall demand continues to be subdued, they also said that headwinds experienced last year should begin to subside in the coming quarter. This cautious optimism enabled them to present a Q2 outlook that came a touch ahead of consensus (revenues of $2.3-2.4bln vs a consensus of $2.3bln; gross margin at 49.5-50.5% vs a consensus of 49.8%). In an otherwise directionless session, NXP was rewarded with a 14bps tightening of its 5 year risk premium at 179bps.»
[2] «The semi-conductor industry has been all over the news since the beginning of the week. After STM ( STMicorelectronics NV ) bidding for Fairchild on Tuesday, NXP ( NXP Semiconductors NV ) grabbed the headlines today, as they reported Q3 earnings. Although they announced revenue just below and EPS above the street consensus, people focused – as one would actually expect them to do - on the guidance for the coming quarters. The company surprised the market by lowering their forecast for fourth quarter revenues (which they expect to be down “low to upper teens range” quarter on quarter), as customers pulled back on orders amid a slowing global economy and higher inventories of unsold chips. The surprise did not come from the direction of the revision, but rather by its magnitude. The stock was first to react and was marked down almost 20%. The 5 year CDS was slower and only moved 12bps wider to 165bps. There is still time to reload shorts on a name that used to belong in the 200/250bps range.»
[3] «Most of the names traded sideways in the credit market today. Given the tight level of the risk premia, that can only be described as undeniable strength. One rare wobble came from NXP (NXP Semiconductors NV). The company announced overnight that it is buying Freescale for $11.8Bln, in a combination of cash and stocks. It aims to expand its market share in chips for cars, surfing the trend pointing to vehicle that drive themselves. The deal will be funded with $1bln and $1bln in new debt, which means an increase in net leverage from 1.7x to 3.5x. The initial reaction was to send the 5 year CDS 20bps wider. But there has been a lot of short risk positions built recently in the name in anticipation of such an operation, making it one of only a handful of names trading hardly tighter since the beginning of the year. Now that the deal turning two challengers into a giant has materialised, this CDS felt pretty squeezy and it closed only marginally wider at 149bps (it is wider as what some see on their screen as all the risk premia in DataGrapple are computed using a 100bps running coupon, and not the 500bps which is standard on NXP).»
[4] «Even though the momentum appears to slow a little bit in the CDS market, all indices had another positive session (with the exception of iTraxx Financial Senior which was 0.25bps wider…). The same was true for the vast majority of names, which saw their risk premia decrease across the board, and selling protection was a tough order today. One exception was NXPBV ( NXP Smeiconductors NV ). Its 5 year CDS was wider (up 2bps at 148bps), and the bid was relatively deep on the back on their $1bln convertible bond issue. The proceeds will be used to purchase stocks and repay existing loans. But if you take a few steps back and look at the 5 year CDS run over the last few years, you will see that the timing of the company is not that bad. The risk premium of NXP has never been that tight. The stock is also trading at its all-time high on the NASDAQ, and interest rates have never been that low. All in all, it is fair to say that the issue of convertible notes probably make sense… for them.»
[5] «Earlier in the year, the control of XRX ( Xerox Corp ) was handed to activist investors Icahn and Deason, after its planned merger with Fuji was scrapped. The company delivered today its first set of results under their guidance, and they were consistent with granting top priority to shareholder returns. The US photocopier which is facing a long running decline in its core business reported net profit that roughly halved and said revenue fell 5.8% year on year to $2.35Bln in the third quarter, below an average analyst estimate of $2.42Bln. Despite that fall, the new management increased its share-repurchase expectations by $200m, even though according to the different rating agencies, XRX does not have any further flexibility within its current BBB rating category. Investors certainly copied that, and sent XRX’s 5-year risk premium 27bps at 224bps.»

Question: What did NXP's management say about the demand and market conditions during their earnings report?

Reasoning: Let's think step by step in order to produce the answer. We need to look at the information provided in the context regarding NXP's earnings report.

Answer: The management of NXP stated that overall demand continues to be subdued, but they also mentioned that the headwinds experienced in the previous year should begin to subside in the coming quarter.

---

Context:
[1] «NXP ( NXP Semiconductors NV ) is a leading chip supplier for smartphones, but it is also a major supplier of chips for the auto industry following its recent acquisition of FSL (Freescale Semiconductor). These chips have a wide range of applications, from advanced driver assistance systems to “infotainment” or in-vehicle networking between different car systems. NXP’s strength in the auto industry is one of the reasons the company managed to surprise investors when it reported Q1 2016 numbers this morning, which were in line with analysts’ expectations. More importantly, even though management said the overall demand continues to be subdued, they also said that headwinds experienced last year should begin to subside in the coming quarter. This cautious optimism enabled them to present a Q2 outlook that came a touch ahead of consensus (revenues of $2.3-2.4bln vs a consensus of $2.3bln; gross margin at 49.5-50.5% vs a consensus of 49.8%). In an otherwise directionless session, NXP was rewarded with a 14bps tightening of its 5 year risk premium at 179bps.»
[2] «The semi-conductor industry has been all over the news since the beginning of the week. After STM ( STMicorelectronics NV ) bidding for Fairchild on Tuesday, NXP ( NXP Semiconductors NV ) grabbed the headlines today, as they reported Q3 earnings. Although they announced revenue just below and EPS above the street consensus, people focused – as one would actually expect them to do - on the guidance for the coming quarters. The company surprised the market by lowering their forecast for fourth quarter revenues (which they expect to be down “low to upper teens range” quarter on quarter), as customers pulled back on orders amid a slowing global economy and higher inventories of unsold chips. The surprise did not come from the direction of the revision, but rather by its magnitude. The stock was first to react and was marked down almost 20%. The 5 year CDS was slower and only moved 12bps wider to 165bps. There is still time to reload shorts on a name that used to belong in the 200/250bps range.»
[3] «Most of the names traded sideways in the credit market today. Given the tight level of the risk premia, that can only be described as undeniable strength. One rare wobble came from NXP (NXP Semiconductors NV). The company announced overnight that it is buying Freescale for $11.8Bln, in a combination of cash and stocks. It aims to expand its market share in chips for cars, surfing the trend pointing to vehicle that drive themselves. The deal will be funded with $1bln and $1bln in new debt, which means an increase in net leverage from 1.7x to 3.5x. The initial reaction was to send the 5 year CDS 20bps wider. But there has been a lot of short risk positions built recently in the name in anticipation of such an operation, making it one of only a handful of names trading hardly tighter since the beginning of the year. Now that the deal turning two challengers into a giant has materialised, this CDS felt pretty squeezy and it closed only marginally wider at 149bps (it is wider as what some see on their screen as all the risk premia in DataGrapple are computed using a 100bps running coupon, and not the 500bps which is standard on NXP).»
[4] «Even though the momentum appears to slow a little bit in the CDS market, all indices had another positive session (with the exception of iTraxx Financial Senior which was 0.25bps wider…). The same was true for the vast majority of names, which saw their risk premia decrease across the board, and selling protection was a tough order today. One exception was NXPBV ( NXP Smeiconductors NV ). Its 5 year CDS was wider (up 2bps at 148bps), and the bid was relatively deep on the back on their $1bln convertible bond issue. The proceeds will be used to purchase stocks and repay existing loans. But if you take a few steps back and look at the 5 year CDS run over the last few years, you will see that the timing of the company is not that bad. The risk premium of NXP has never been that tight. The stock is also trading at its all-time high on the NASDAQ, and interest rates have never been that low. All in all, it is fair to say that the issue of convertible notes probably make sense… for them.»
[5] «Earlier in the year, the control of XRX ( Xerox Corp ) was handed to activist investors Icahn and Deason, after its planned merger with Fuji was scrapped. The company delivered today its first set of results under their guidance, and they were consistent with granting top priority to shareholder returns. The US photocopier which is facing a long running decline in its core business reported net profit that roughly halved and said revenue fell 5.8% year on year to $2.35Bln in the third quarter, below an average analyst estimate of $2.42Bln. Despite that fall, the new management increased its share-repurchase expectations by $200m, even though according to the different rating agencies, XRX does not have any further flexibility within its current BBB rating category. Investors certainly copied that, and sent XRX’s 5-year risk premium 27bps at 224bps.»

Question: What was NXP's revenue and gross margin outlook for Q2, and how did it compare to the consensus estimates?

Reasoning: Let's think step by step in order to produce the answer. We know from the context that NXP reported Q1 2016 numbers in line with analysts' expectations and presented a Q2 outlook that came a touch ahead of consensus. The revenues for Q2 were expected to be $2.3-2.4 billion, slightly above the consensus of $2.3 billion. The gross margin for Q2 was expected to be 49.5-50.5%, also slightly above the consensus of 49.8%.

Answer: The revenue outlook for Q2 was $2.3-2.4 billion, slightly above the consensus of $2.3 billion, and the gross margin outlook was 49.5-50.5%, slightly above the consensus of 49.8%.

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Context:
[1] «The bruising first quarter of 2016 is now a distant memory for investors who waged some of their money on commodity related companies.  AALLN (Anglo American Plc), MTNA ( ArcelorMittal SA ) and TKAGR ( ThyssenKrupp AG ) all reported in the last few weeks and beat analysts’ estimates. GLEINT ( Glencore Plc ) was the last to publish numbers yesterday, and they showed that they are also firing on all cylinders. The company swung back into the black in 2016, turning a pre-tax profit of $1.38bln. It reaped the benefits of rising prices in key commodities such as coal, zinc and copper, as well as falling costs and currency fluctuations. It beat consensus on its key target metrics, including net debt reduction. The latter had soared as high as $30bln in 2014 in the wake of the takeover of Xstrata. At the end of last year, it stood at $15.5bln - a reduction of $10.4bln in 12 months -, well below its own target. So much so that Mr Glasenberg said GLEINT should be able to “kick out a big dividend”. Credit investors have already been rewarded with a 1,200bps reduction in the company’s 5-year risk premium. From a high of 1,339bps in January 2016, it closed at 155bps today!»
[2] «ArcelorMittal (MTNA) was under pressure today, with its 5y CDS wider by c15bp and its stock down -5%. That happened despite ever higher metal prices YTD. The move was caused by the evacuation of c700 people living near its dormant Serra Azul tailing dam, as precautionary measure. The dam has not broken yet, but analysts are divided on how big the financial impact can be. On the other side of the Atlantic, the outlook is not much brighter. MTNA’s South African subsidiary AMSA has registered its 1st profit in ~10y thanks to higher margins (metal prices up), higher volumes, lower costs. But demand from South Africa is still sluggish (less growth in infrastructure projects) and imports from China have established a fierce competition. Despite bad news, it is not a credit story yet. Leverage is still around 1x and MTNA has a solid liquidity. It has $2.4B cash on its balance sheet and another $5.5B disponible from credit facilities. Net debt is higher $10.2B, but the short-term maturities ‘only’ amount to $3.2B ($1.3B CP $1.0B loans $0.9B bonds). Management’s commitment on leverage and ‘small’ dividend & buyback programme are also reassuring in the medium term. »
[3] «As you can see with the pale shades of the above grapple, it was a fairly dull day with most of Continental Europe out. A few names are flashing red though, and most of them are in the top right corner where the Energy and Basic Materials sectors can be found. Indeed, WFT ( Weatherford International Plc ) reported a larger than expected first quarter loss and lowered their free cash flow guidance for the year. That comes at a time where most people holding short risk positions have capitulated and sold the protection they owned during the aggressive rally we have seen since the February wides. As a results, there are very few investors left willing to offer CDS, and whenever buyers show up, risk premia are marked wider very rapidly. This technical factors go a long way towards explaining why WFT’s 5 year CDS was marked 7pts wider today. They also explains investors’ unease with the tight risk premia across the energy sector at the moment. If you extend the time span to a week (click on the "1W" toggle above the grapple) in the above grapple, you will see a number of names flashing red in that top right corner. WFT was not the first company to give up some of its recent impressive gains.»
[4] «As far as credit is concerned, despite some volatility, last week has not brought any major change. Utilities for instance were stable as a whole in Europe (you can see that the green candle is actually flat), but, within the sector, performance has varied greatly. Indeed, political issues have come back to the forefront in various countries, with a strong impact on a few names. In the UK, all eyes were on the outcome of the general election. With the election of a Conservative government, UK utilities reacted positively: the proposed power price freeze by the Labour Party leader had unsettled investors during the run-up to the poll. CENTRI’s ( Centrica Plc ) and UU’s ( United Utilities Group Plc ) 5 year risk premia tightened 6.5bps to 66bps and 1.5bps to 86.5bps respectively. At the other end of the spectrum, the never ending Greece saga continues and growing fears over the future of the country’s debt clearly did not help peripheral players. ELEPOR ( EDP - Energias De Portugal SA ) was the worst performer of the sector, and its 5 year CDS widened by 4bps to 133.5bps.»
[5] «Teck Resources (TCK) is a Canadian diversified mining company (copper, steelmaking coal, zinc and energy). Now in the tight quarter of the CDX HY, the name will be coming back in the CDX IG index from next March 20, after spending 3.5 years in HY. This is as TCK has been upgraded by Fitch to BBB- (=) in FEB and by Moody’s to Baa3 (=) in JAN. Now the 5y CDS pays c127bp, after ranging [100,200] over the past year or so. But due to its exposure to commodity price volatility, this CDS can be less well-behaved. In its history, this quite cyclical name has peaked ~1,500bp (GFC) and ~2,000bp (commo crash in 2015). It was a long way since then. Indeed, last year, TCK generated $4.9B EBITDA, from $4.3B $2.6B $1.6B the years before. FCF was +$1.1B from -$0.6B in 2015. Today it looks more credit-friendly than before the 2015 commodity slump, as dividend payout came from 50%+ to c5% now. Moreover, its net leverage has stabilized below 1x, over the past few quarters, and its liquidity position has improved to almost $6B. That being said, lower commodities, production disruptions, fast FCF burn due to high capex requirements remain potential risks. »

Question: How did FirstEnergy's cash reserves stand at the end of 2019, and what was the trend over the previous five years?

Reasoning: Let's think step by step in order to produce the answer. We need to look at the information provided in the context regarding FirstEnergy's cash reserves at the end of 2019 and the trend over the previous five years.

Answer: The context does not provide information about FirstEnergy's cash reserves at the end of 2019 or the trend over the previous five years.
third_compiled_rag("Did the OPEC members decide to cut oil production? When? Where? Why?").answer
'Yes, OPEC members decided to cut oil production during a meeting in Vienna. They agreed to reduce output by 1.2 million barrels per day and cap it at 32.5 million barrels per day in order to address the oversupply of oil in the market and support oil prices.'
dspy.settings.lm.inspect_history(n=1)
Based on the provided business and financial contexts, provide detailed and specific answers that fully address the posed questions, drawing explicitly from the information given.

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Follow the following format.

Context: may contain relevant facts

Question: ${question}

Reasoning: Let's think step by step in order to ${produce the answer}. We ...

Answer: ${answer}

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Context:
[1] «In February 2015, Ball agreed to acquire Rexam in a deal that would combine two of the world’s largest makers of cans for drinks, and it has been trying since to win regulatory approval for the deal. Today, it announced that it had agreed with Rexam to sell plants in Brazil and Europe together with innovation and support functions in Brazil, Britain, Germany, Switzerland and the United States to ARGID (Ardagh Packaging) to satisfy some of these regulatory concerns. This divestment program itself is subject to regulatory approvals, but it should enable ARGID to acquire assets with combined revenues of around $3bln and will cost the company approximately $3.4bln. To help finance the operation, ARGID will issue $2.85bln of secured and unsecured notes in the coming weeks. They had been rumoured to be the leading bidders for Ball-Rexam assets for a while, and that is the reason why the risk premium of ARGID never really participated in the rally that took iTraxx Crossover from 336bps on the April 8th to 294bps last Friday. Nevertheless, the quasi-certain perspective of more leverage led investors to mark ARGID’s 5 year CDS 36bps wider (to 452bps) today.»
[2] «This morning, BATSLN ( British American Tobacco Plc ) offered to merge with RAI ( Reynolds American, Inc. ). BATSLN already owns 42% of RAI, and the offer targets the remaining 58%. Over the past few years, several failed attempts were made to take full ownership with a view to create a geographically diverse group, since RAI is focused on the US and BATSLN is weighted towards everywhere else. There would also be scope for scale economies in R&D; for smokeless technologies, justifying the high multiples of the transaction – 16.3 times 12-month trailing Ebitda -. The current proposal values RAI at $56.5/share – that is a 20% premium to yesterday’s close – of which $24.13 will be cash, but discussions have not begun between the two companies and RAI was said to want a higher premium. In any case, the total cash contribution should be in excess of $20Bln and investors are expecting a heavy bond issuance to finance the deal which will increase leverage by roughly one time. They send BATSLN’s 5-year risk premium 7bps wider at 65bps without waiting for the final details of the operation.

Meanwhile, the broader credit market was quiet, and traded volumes on credit indices stood 30 to 40% below average. While risk premia were a touch wider across the board, moves were kept minimal.
»
[3] «According to various press reports, Altria, which controls 27% of SABLN ( SAB Miller Plc ), recently pulled out of a conference appearance to follow up on a similar action by ABIBB ( Anheuser Busch Inbev SA ). People were quick to think something was brewing and today ABIBB confirmed it had made an approach to SABLN’s board. This acquisition would be the biggest in the industry history and would cap more than a decade of consolidation across brewing companies, as consolidation has been used as a way to stave off a slowdown in established markets such as Europe and the US. Even though a deal is currently much more affordable because the price action of SABLN’s has been weak over the last 6 months, the deal would likely cost ABIBB more than $100bln. If both the stocks of both company reacted positively, that is a big number and investors pushed ABIBB’s 5 year risk premium 11bps wider to 79bps, the most in almost 3 years.»
[4] «Today, RAI (Reynolds American, Inc) and Lorillard Inc. announced that they are proceeding with their merger, in a $27.4bln deal that will see RAI become a bigger competitor to U.S. market leader MO (Altria Group Inc). In line with recent press speculation, IMTLN (Imperial Tobacco Group Plc) will acquire $7.1bln worth of assets from the merged entity. In the process, IMTLN will lever up to a level that is not compatible with an IG rating, and the market has recently punished them for that, putting today the final touch to a 20bps widening in a little less than 10 days. But the company has clearly discussed the transaction with the rating agencies before the announcement, and Moody’s was able to reaffirm their rating very quickly, whilst putting them on negative outlook. That last bit is there to make sure that they use some of their ridiculous cash generation towards deleveraging and that they respect a strict timescale to do so. With that in mind, most of the damage to the 5 year risk premium of IMTLN might already be behind us.»
[5] «Yesterday ABIBB ( Anheuser Busch Inbev SA ) made a formal $107bln offer to buy SABLN ( SABMiller plc ), sealing a long anticipated deal that combine the world’s biggest brewers to form a company that will have the number one or two position in 24 of the world’s 30 biggest beer markets according to analysts. To back the acquisition, ABIBB said it obtained the biggest corporate loan on record, $75bln. In the future part of the loans will be replaced by bonds, and the brewer is said to be planning to sell $55bln of bonds across multiple currency and maturities. When it happens, this sale will also be a record. It will exceed the $49bln of bonds that VZ ( Verizon Communications Inc ) issued two years ago to fund its buyout of VOD’s ( Vodafone Group plc ) stake in a wireless venture. But while in September 2013, VZ’s 5 year risk premium jumped 30bps from 70 to 100bps when the jumbo deal was announced, ABIBB’s 5 year risk premium hardly moved at all. It widened today by 2bps to 81bps, which is merely in line with the rest of the market ( iTraxx Main, the barometer of European investment grade credit, widened 3bps to 73.5bps).»

Question: What steps has Ball taken to win regulatory approval for its acquisition of Rexam?

Reasoning: Let's think step by step in order to produce the answer. We need to look at the context provided to understand the actions Ball has taken to win regulatory approval for its acquisition of Rexam.

Answer: Ball has agreed with Rexam to sell plants in Brazil and Europe, along with innovation and support functions in several countries, to ARGID (Ardagh Packaging) to satisfy regulatory concerns. This divestment program is subject to regulatory approvals and will enable ARGID to acquire assets with combined revenues of around $3 billion. Additionally, ARGID will issue $2.85 billion of secured and unsecured notes to help finance the operation.

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Context:
[1] «Yesterday saw the earnings reporting season ‘s starting whistle for Q1 blown by AA ( Alcoa Inc ). They got things started after the closing bell, and the numbers were fairly mixed. While earnings came in above consensus, they missed on revenues. They also lowered their forecast for global demand of aluminium in 2016 – they expect it to climb 5% whereas previously their projection was a 6% increase – and they decreased their market deficit projection – they estimate a 1.1 million metric tons deficit in 2016 versus 1.2 million 3 months ago – as Chinese demand slows. That made AA one of the few names that saw their 5 year risk premium widen (+10bps at 405bps) in an otherwise constructive session. Even if it currently stands far off its February highs of 44%, it means the market assigns a 31% probability to an AA default over during the next 5 years.»
[2] «Like every other quarter, AA ( Alcoa Inc ) will be among the first to report at the very beginning of the second week of October. But while the results might get any scrutiny and generate some volatility as commodity related names have been under the spotlight recently, AA already proved over the last few days that it is not a credit for the faint hearted. On Monday, the company announced its plan to break itself in two by separating its manufacturing operations (the “Value-Add” business still to be named) from the legacy smelting and refining business (which will retain the Alcoa name) that is struggling to overcome booming production from China. Investors were unsure where the debt might end up, and they feared that the bonds might go to the less attractive part of the business, i.e. Alcoa. Accordingly, they sent AA’s 5 year risk premium 140bps wider at 457bps, meaning that a 5 year bond lost roughly 7cts on the dollar on that day. The company management issued a statement late yesterday saying that “Alcoa’s current intent is that the debt of Alcoa would be retained by the Value-Add company for which Alcoa is targeting an investment grade rating”. Guess what? AA’s 5 year risk premium closed at 335bps tonight.»
[3] «We already had a trickle of results in the past few weeks, but the reporting season begun in earnest today. Over the next few weeks, all major companies will be releasing third numbers on both sides of the Atlantic. As is now customary, AA ( Alcoa Inc ) kicked off the proceedings, and they did it in style. The 128-year-old company reported their last earnings before splitting into two entities - the newly branded Arconic which will service aerospace and automotive industries, and the new Alcoa which will focus on their mining and smelting operations in bauxite, alumina and aluminium products – and missed both earnings (32cts/share vs 34cts expected) and revenue (total sales fell to $5.2Bln vs $5.33Bln expected) estimates. More importantly, they lowered Q4 and year-end guidance, adding that next year’s outlook was “very hard” to read. Investors punished the stock and marked it 10% lower, while they sent AA’s 5-year risk premium 17.5bps wider at 250bps, still a long way away from the 650bps it reached at the very beginning of the year though.

Meanwhile, the broader credit market was on the back foot. Credit indices suffered as US equities felt the brunt of a strong dollar and the disappointing start to the earning season. In Europe iTraxx Main and iTraxx Crossover closed 1bp and 4.5bps  wider at 74.5bps and 335bps respectively, while, in the US, CDXIG was 1bp wider at 75bps and CDXHY 2bps wider at 404bps.
»
[4] «The reporting season is only beginning, and this used to be the time of the year when Alcoa was systematically mentioned as it used to be the first corporate to announce its results. Part of the company, which produces and distributes aerospace products, split from Alcoa Corporation, which produces and sells bauxite, alumina and aluminium products, and is now known as ARNC ( Arconic Inc ). It will report in a couple of weeks. Nevertheless, it attracted most of the headlines in the US credit market today. As of Friday, its stock was down 44% from the high it reached mid-January. It had suffered from tensions concerning the US aluminium and steel tariffs that have roiled metal producers. It is in this context that the Wall Street Journal reported late on Friday that private equity firms would be circling the company. Even though it is facing operational challenges, its weak cash generation and attractive valuation offer potential buyers a favourable entry point according to analysts. LBOs are synonymous of increased leverage, and while they sent ARNC’s stock 10% higher, investors pushed the company’s 5-year risk premium 85bps wider at 283bps.»
[5] «In August, ARNC ( Arconic Inc ) announced it was considering selling its building and construction systems unit which makes facades, windows and framing products. On Tuesday, when it reported better than expected quarterly profit and raised its full-year earnings forecast, it said the sale process was under way and had drawn robust interest. Under such circumstances, one would probably expect ARNC’s risk premium to tighten. But during the same earning meeting, the management also announced that the scope of the strategy and portfolio review initiated in February was being extended and its scope broadened “to address additional scenarios”. That gave weight to rumours that private equity firms are circling the company, with Apollo Global Management supposedly about to make an offer in excess of $11bln for the aluminium products maker. With LBO risks gathering and leverage potentially about to be propelled higher, investors in fact pushed ARNC’s 5-year risk premium above 400bps for the first time since 2016. »

Question: What adjustments did Alcoa Inc make to its global aluminum demand forecast for 2016?

Reasoning: Let's think step by step in order to produce the answer. We know from the context that Alcoa Inc adjusted its global aluminum demand forecast for 2016. They initially projected a 6% increase in demand but later revised it to a 5% increase. Additionally, they decreased their market deficit projection from 1.2 million metric tons to 1.1 million metric tons due to slowing Chinese demand.

Answer: Alcoa Inc adjusted its global aluminum demand forecast for 2016 by lowering it from a 6% increase to a 5% increase and decreasing their market deficit projection from 1.2 million metric tons to 1.1 million metric tons.

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Context:
[1] «NXP ( NXP Semiconductors NV ) is a leading chip supplier for smartphones, but it is also a major supplier of chips for the auto industry following its recent acquisition of FSL (Freescale Semiconductor). These chips have a wide range of applications, from advanced driver assistance systems to “infotainment” or in-vehicle networking between different car systems. NXP’s strength in the auto industry is one of the reasons the company managed to surprise investors when it reported Q1 2016 numbers this morning, which were in line with analysts’ expectations. More importantly, even though management said the overall demand continues to be subdued, they also said that headwinds experienced last year should begin to subside in the coming quarter. This cautious optimism enabled them to present a Q2 outlook that came a touch ahead of consensus (revenues of $2.3-2.4bln vs a consensus of $2.3bln; gross margin at 49.5-50.5% vs a consensus of 49.8%). In an otherwise directionless session, NXP was rewarded with a 14bps tightening of its 5 year risk premium at 179bps.»
[2] «The semi-conductor industry has been all over the news since the beginning of the week. After STM ( STMicorelectronics NV ) bidding for Fairchild on Tuesday, NXP ( NXP Semiconductors NV ) grabbed the headlines today, as they reported Q3 earnings. Although they announced revenue just below and EPS above the street consensus, people focused – as one would actually expect them to do - on the guidance for the coming quarters. The company surprised the market by lowering their forecast for fourth quarter revenues (which they expect to be down “low to upper teens range” quarter on quarter), as customers pulled back on orders amid a slowing global economy and higher inventories of unsold chips. The surprise did not come from the direction of the revision, but rather by its magnitude. The stock was first to react and was marked down almost 20%. The 5 year CDS was slower and only moved 12bps wider to 165bps. There is still time to reload shorts on a name that used to belong in the 200/250bps range.»
[3] «Most of the names traded sideways in the credit market today. Given the tight level of the risk premia, that can only be described as undeniable strength. One rare wobble came from NXP (NXP Semiconductors NV). The company announced overnight that it is buying Freescale for $11.8Bln, in a combination of cash and stocks. It aims to expand its market share in chips for cars, surfing the trend pointing to vehicle that drive themselves. The deal will be funded with $1bln and $1bln in new debt, which means an increase in net leverage from 1.7x to 3.5x. The initial reaction was to send the 5 year CDS 20bps wider. But there has been a lot of short risk positions built recently in the name in anticipation of such an operation, making it one of only a handful of names trading hardly tighter since the beginning of the year. Now that the deal turning two challengers into a giant has materialised, this CDS felt pretty squeezy and it closed only marginally wider at 149bps (it is wider as what some see on their screen as all the risk premia in DataGrapple are computed using a 100bps running coupon, and not the 500bps which is standard on NXP).»
[4] «Even though the momentum appears to slow a little bit in the CDS market, all indices had another positive session (with the exception of iTraxx Financial Senior which was 0.25bps wider…). The same was true for the vast majority of names, which saw their risk premia decrease across the board, and selling protection was a tough order today. One exception was NXPBV ( NXP Smeiconductors NV ). Its 5 year CDS was wider (up 2bps at 148bps), and the bid was relatively deep on the back on their $1bln convertible bond issue. The proceeds will be used to purchase stocks and repay existing loans. But if you take a few steps back and look at the 5 year CDS run over the last few years, you will see that the timing of the company is not that bad. The risk premium of NXP has never been that tight. The stock is also trading at its all-time high on the NASDAQ, and interest rates have never been that low. All in all, it is fair to say that the issue of convertible notes probably make sense… for them.»
[5] «Earlier in the year, the control of XRX ( Xerox Corp ) was handed to activist investors Icahn and Deason, after its planned merger with Fuji was scrapped. The company delivered today its first set of results under their guidance, and they were consistent with granting top priority to shareholder returns. The US photocopier which is facing a long running decline in its core business reported net profit that roughly halved and said revenue fell 5.8% year on year to $2.35Bln in the third quarter, below an average analyst estimate of $2.42Bln. Despite that fall, the new management increased its share-repurchase expectations by $200m, even though according to the different rating agencies, XRX does not have any further flexibility within its current BBB rating category. Investors certainly copied that, and sent XRX’s 5-year risk premium 27bps at 224bps.»

Question: What did NXP's management say about the demand and market conditions during their earnings report?

Reasoning: Let's think step by step in order to produce the answer. We need to look at the information provided in the context regarding NXP's earnings report.

Answer: The management of NXP stated that overall demand continues to be subdued, but they also mentioned that the headwinds experienced in the previous year should begin to subside in the coming quarter.

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Context:
[1] «NXP ( NXP Semiconductors NV ) is a leading chip supplier for smartphones, but it is also a major supplier of chips for the auto industry following its recent acquisition of FSL (Freescale Semiconductor). These chips have a wide range of applications, from advanced driver assistance systems to “infotainment” or in-vehicle networking between different car systems. NXP’s strength in the auto industry is one of the reasons the company managed to surprise investors when it reported Q1 2016 numbers this morning, which were in line with analysts’ expectations. More importantly, even though management said the overall demand continues to be subdued, they also said that headwinds experienced last year should begin to subside in the coming quarter. This cautious optimism enabled them to present a Q2 outlook that came a touch ahead of consensus (revenues of $2.3-2.4bln vs a consensus of $2.3bln; gross margin at 49.5-50.5% vs a consensus of 49.8%). In an otherwise directionless session, NXP was rewarded with a 14bps tightening of its 5 year risk premium at 179bps.»
[2] «The semi-conductor industry has been all over the news since the beginning of the week. After STM ( STMicorelectronics NV ) bidding for Fairchild on Tuesday, NXP ( NXP Semiconductors NV ) grabbed the headlines today, as they reported Q3 earnings. Although they announced revenue just below and EPS above the street consensus, people focused – as one would actually expect them to do - on the guidance for the coming quarters. The company surprised the market by lowering their forecast for fourth quarter revenues (which they expect to be down “low to upper teens range” quarter on quarter), as customers pulled back on orders amid a slowing global economy and higher inventories of unsold chips. The surprise did not come from the direction of the revision, but rather by its magnitude. The stock was first to react and was marked down almost 20%. The 5 year CDS was slower and only moved 12bps wider to 165bps. There is still time to reload shorts on a name that used to belong in the 200/250bps range.»
[3] «Most of the names traded sideways in the credit market today. Given the tight level of the risk premia, that can only be described as undeniable strength. One rare wobble came from NXP (NXP Semiconductors NV). The company announced overnight that it is buying Freescale for $11.8Bln, in a combination of cash and stocks. It aims to expand its market share in chips for cars, surfing the trend pointing to vehicle that drive themselves. The deal will be funded with $1bln and $1bln in new debt, which means an increase in net leverage from 1.7x to 3.5x. The initial reaction was to send the 5 year CDS 20bps wider. But there has been a lot of short risk positions built recently in the name in anticipation of such an operation, making it one of only a handful of names trading hardly tighter since the beginning of the year. Now that the deal turning two challengers into a giant has materialised, this CDS felt pretty squeezy and it closed only marginally wider at 149bps (it is wider as what some see on their screen as all the risk premia in DataGrapple are computed using a 100bps running coupon, and not the 500bps which is standard on NXP).»
[4] «Even though the momentum appears to slow a little bit in the CDS market, all indices had another positive session (with the exception of iTraxx Financial Senior which was 0.25bps wider…). The same was true for the vast majority of names, which saw their risk premia decrease across the board, and selling protection was a tough order today. One exception was NXPBV ( NXP Smeiconductors NV ). Its 5 year CDS was wider (up 2bps at 148bps), and the bid was relatively deep on the back on their $1bln convertible bond issue. The proceeds will be used to purchase stocks and repay existing loans. But if you take a few steps back and look at the 5 year CDS run over the last few years, you will see that the timing of the company is not that bad. The risk premium of NXP has never been that tight. The stock is also trading at its all-time high on the NASDAQ, and interest rates have never been that low. All in all, it is fair to say that the issue of convertible notes probably make sense… for them.»
[5] «Earlier in the year, the control of XRX ( Xerox Corp ) was handed to activist investors Icahn and Deason, after its planned merger with Fuji was scrapped. The company delivered today its first set of results under their guidance, and they were consistent with granting top priority to shareholder returns. The US photocopier which is facing a long running decline in its core business reported net profit that roughly halved and said revenue fell 5.8% year on year to $2.35Bln in the third quarter, below an average analyst estimate of $2.42Bln. Despite that fall, the new management increased its share-repurchase expectations by $200m, even though according to the different rating agencies, XRX does not have any further flexibility within its current BBB rating category. Investors certainly copied that, and sent XRX’s 5-year risk premium 27bps at 224bps.»

Question: What was NXP's revenue and gross margin outlook for Q2, and how did it compare to the consensus estimates?

Reasoning: Let's think step by step in order to produce the answer. We know from the context that NXP reported Q1 2016 numbers in line with analysts' expectations and presented a Q2 outlook that came a touch ahead of consensus. The revenues for Q2 were expected to be $2.3-2.4 billion, slightly above the consensus of $2.3 billion. The gross margin for Q2 was expected to be 49.5-50.5%, also slightly above the consensus of 49.8%.

Answer: The revenue outlook for Q2 was $2.3-2.4 billion, slightly above the consensus of $2.3 billion, and the gross margin outlook was 49.5-50.5%, slightly above the consensus of 49.8%.

---

Context:
[1] «OPEC members were holding a meeting in Vienna today. They managed to confound skeptics and reached an agreement to cut oil supply, their first such move in eight years. Members of the organisation will reduce output by 1.2mln barrels per day and cap it to 32.5mln per day. With the prospect of less pumping – the agreement should come into force at the beginning of 2017 -, oil prices soared by 8%, and Brent was back above $50/barrel. After weeks of tense negotiations, the agreement, which also calls for a reduction of about 600,000 barrels a day by non-OPEC countries, was taken at face value by investors as Russia, the biggest producer outside the organisation, said it is ready to participate marking a reversal of its previous position. January is still far away and December will see ongoing record production, but that was brushed aside and the whole energy sector benefitted from the news, outperforming the rest of the market. »
[2] «Part of continental Europe was closed today and it had a bearing on the market activity, and volumes were on the low side. People spent the whole day keeping an eye on headlines regarding the meeting of OPEC and their allies in Vienna. Hardly anything filtered until the middle of the afternoon when the producer group together with Russia and other non-members announced they had agreed to prolong their previous agreement to limit output for another 9 months. While 6 months ago, the cartel surprised investors and delivered cuts that exceeded expectations, the market did not seem entirely convinced today. People were apparently left a bit disappointed and news that Equatorial Guinea was officially becoming the 14th member of OPEC – it will be one of the smallest producers, pumping 270,000 barrels a day – was not the extra something people had been hoping for. Without a steer on what will happen beyond March, there is concern that OPEC could return to the free-for-all production that caused the free fall of oil between mid-2014 and early 2016. While oil had been stable for most of the day, it lost roughly 4% during the last couple of hours of trading. That was a drag on all commodity names, which today formed the worst performing group in the US high yield universe.»
[3] «Over the weekend, all eyes were on the long awaited oil producers meeting in Doha. It ended in disappointment, as OPEC members and major producers walked away without any agreement on a production freeze. That initially sent oil 7% lower and markets were weaker across the board. However, as the day progressed, investors holding short risk positions used that blip as an opportunity to reduce their exposure ahead of the performance of Mr Draghi on Thursday. The market was also helped by a strike in Kuwait, which will temporarily limit their oil production by 2/3 and sent the barrel back to unchanged on the day. In the end, despite the worst possible outcome regarding oil output, names that saw their risk premium increase on the day were few and far between. Credit indices and their fair values closed tighter in investment grade and high yield alike, giving the above grapple its greenish colour.»
[4] «Crude oil prices collapsed today again, on signs of record Saudi output, high inventories across the globe, risks of China’s economy slowing down, Iran effectively able to export thanks to waivers, and weaker risk sentiment. WTI lost almost 8% on the day, and around 34% since the October 3rd peak. Brent followed south $60/bbl. for the first time in a year. As a consequence, US IG energy companies (exploration & production, refiners, marketers, drillers) are underperforming today, their 5y CDS widening by 7/10bp. While Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members reportedly plan quiet output cuts to avoid Trump's ire, Russia doesn’t seem in a rush to join this move. Listening to Trump’s recent speeches, it is clear that he considers the c35% lower gasoline prices in the US a key achievement. Therefore he may well continue to pressure Saudis to not cut output, ahead of the OPEC meeting scheduled on Dec 6th in Vienna. Coincidentally, Trump has recently declared that he would support the Saudis despite his own intelligence agency concluded that Saudi crown prince MBS ordered Khashoggi’s murder. »
[5] «In January, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was trading at $56/barrel after OPEC curbs drove oil to its highest level in two years. But it looks as if the concerted efforts of the group to cut production is failing to clear a surplus of crude. Indeed, lured by rising prices, US shale drillers have been adding rigs every week recently and have pushed US oil production to its highest since August 2015. Libya – which is not an OPEC member - also announced that their production reached its highest since 2014. At the same time, US gasoline demand is pretty weak – in April it was down 2.7% from the same period a year earlier – and investors fear tighter credit conditions in China could depress growth in the coming months. Doubts over the ability of OPEC to durably influence prices are rising fast, and WTI has been on a downward trajectory over the last three. The pace accelerated yesterday with a 5% loss in a single session to $45.5. Even if the level of crude stabilised today, this was enough to spook investors, and they remarked the risk premium of the whole energy complex. This was true on both sides of the Atlantic, but US names were the most affected as a number of them are high beta credits.»

Question: Did the OPEC members decide to cut oil productions? When? Where? Why?

Reasoning: Let's think step by step in order to produce the answer. From the context provided, we know that OPEC members did decide to cut oil production. The decision was made during a meeting in Vienna, where they agreed to reduce output by 1.2 million barrels per day and cap it at 32.5 million barrels per day. This decision was made to address the oversupply of oil in the market and support oil prices.

Answer: Yes, OPEC members decided to cut oil production during a meeting in Vienna. They agreed to reduce output by 1.2 million barrels per day and cap it at 32.5 million barrels per day in order to address the oversupply of oil in the market and support oil prices.
evaluate(third_compiled_rag, metric=llm_metric)
  0%|          | 0/10 [00:00<?, ?it/s]

Test Question: What sectors does NXP Semiconductors NV primarily supply chips for?
Predicted Answer: NXP Semiconductors NV primarily supplies chips for the auto industry, specifically for applications in advanced driver assistance systems, infotainment, and in-vehicle networking between different car systems.


Average Metric: 4.0 / 1  (400.0):  10%|█         | 1/10 [00:00<00:02,  3.02it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: What are some of the applications of NXP's chips in the auto industry?
Predicted Answer: NXP's chips in the auto industry have applications ranging from advanced driver assistance systems to "infotainment" and in-vehicle networking between different car systems.


Average Metric: 8.0 / 2  (400.0):  20%|██        | 2/10 [00:00<00:02,  3.00it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: How did NXP's Q1 2016 earnings report compare to analysts' expectations?
Predicted Answer: NXP's Q1 2016 earnings report was in line with analysts' expectations. The company surprised investors with numbers that met the consensus. Additionally, their Q2 outlook slightly exceeded consensus estimates, with revenues expected to be $2.3-2.4 billion compared to a consensus of $2.3 billion and a gross margin of 49.5-50.5% versus a consensus of 49.8%.


Average Metric: 12.0 / 3  (400.0):  30%|███       | 3/10 [00:01<00:02,  2.88it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5


Average Metric: 16.0 / 4  (400.0):  30%|███       | 3/10 [00:01<00:02,  2.88it/s]

Test Question: What did NXP's management say about the demand and market conditions during their earnings report?
Predicted Answer: NXP's management mentioned that overall demand continues to be subdued, but they also stated that the headwinds experienced last year should begin to subside in the coming quarter. This cautious optimism led them to present a Q2 outlook that slightly exceeded consensus estimates for revenues and gross margin.
Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5


Average Metric: 20.0 / 5  (400.0):  50%|█████     | 5/10 [00:01<00:01,  2.70it/s]

Test Question: What was NXP's revenue and gross margin outlook for Q2, and how did it compare to the consensus estimates?
Predicted Answer: The revenue outlook for Q2 was $2.3-2.4 billion, slightly above the consensus of $2.3 billion, and the gross margin outlook was 49.5-50.5%, slightly above the consensus of 49.8%.
Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5


Average Metric: 24.0 / 6  (400.0):  60%|██████    | 6/10 [00:02<00:01,  2.74it/s]

Test Question: What steps has Ball taken to win regulatory approval for its acquisition of Rexam?
Predicted Answer: Ball has agreed with Rexam to sell plants in Brazil and Europe, along with innovation and support functions in several countries, to ARGID (Ardagh Packaging) to satisfy regulatory concerns. This divestment program is subject to regulatory approvals and will enable ARGID to acquire assets with combined revenues of around $3 billion. Additionally, ARGID will issue $2.85 billion of secured and unsecured notes to help finance the operation.
Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5


Average Metric: 28.0 / 7  (400.0):  70%|███████   | 7/10 [00:02<00:01,  2.72it/s]

Test Question: Who is acquiring the assets divested by Ball and Rexam, and what is the significance of this acquisition?
Predicted Answer: The assets divested by Ball and Rexam are being acquired by ARGID (Ardagh Packaging). This acquisition is significant as it allows ARGID to acquire assets with combined revenues of around $3 billion, costing the company approximately $3.4 billion, and will be financed through the issuance of $2.85 billion of secured and unsecured notes.
Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: Why did ARGID's risk premium not participate in the recent rally of the iTraxx Crossover index?
Predicted Answer: ARGID's risk premium did not participate in the recent rally of the iTraxx Crossover index because they were rumored to be the leading bidders for Ball-Rexam assets, which led investors to mark their 5-year CDS wider. Additionally, the perspective of more leverage due to the acquisition of assets from Ball-Rexam also contributed to investors widening ARGID's risk premium.


Average Metric: 29.6 / 8  (370.0):  80%|████████  | 8/10 [00:02<00:00,  2.60it/s]

Faithful: 1
Detail: 5
Overall: 1
Test Question: How did the market react to the announcement regarding ARGID's involvement in the Ball-Rexam deal?
Predicted Answer: The market reacted to the announcement of ARGID's involvement in the Ball-Rexam deal by widening ARGID's 5-year CDS risk premium by 36bps to 452bps.


Average Metric: 33.6 / 9  (373.3):  90%|█████████ | 9/10 [00:03<00:00,  2.64it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: What adjustments did Alcoa Inc make to its global aluminum demand forecast for 2016?
Predicted Answer: Alcoa Inc adjusted its global aluminum demand forecast for 2016 by lowering it from a projected 6% increase to a 5% increase. Additionally, they decreased their market deficit projection from 1.2 million metric tons to 1.1 million metric tons due to slowing Chinese demand.


Average Metric: 37.6 / 10  (376.0): 100%|██████████| 10/10 [00:03<00:00,  2.68it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Average Metric: 37.6 / 10  (376.0%)
  question answer llm_metric
0 What sectors does NXP Semiconductors NV primarily supply chips for? NXP Semiconductors NV primarily supplies chips for the auto industry, specifically for applications in advanced driver assistance systems, infotainment, and in-vehicle networking between different car... 4.0
1 What are some of the applications of NXP's chips in the auto industry? NXP's chips in the auto industry have applications ranging from advanced driver assistance systems to "infotainment" and in-vehicle networking between different car systems. 4.0
2 How did NXP's Q1 2016 earnings report compare to analysts' expectations? NXP's Q1 2016 earnings report was in line with analysts' expectations. The company surprised investors with numbers that met the consensus. Additionally, their Q2 outlook... 4.0
3 What did NXP's management say about the demand and market conditions during their earnings report? NXP's management mentioned that overall demand continues to be subdued, but they also stated that the headwinds experienced last year should begin to subside in... 4.0
4 What was NXP's revenue and gross margin outlook for Q2, and how did it compare to the consensus estimates? The revenue outlook for Q2 was $2.3-2.4 billion, slightly above the consensus of $2.3 billion, and the gross margin outlook was 49.5-50.5%, slightly above the... 4.0
... 5 more rows not displayed ...
376.0
round(376 / 348 , 2), "larger metric improvement with this 'optimization'..."
(1.08, "larger metric improvement with this 'optimization'...")

Final evaluation on the test set

from dspy.evaluate.evaluate import Evaluate

evaluate = Evaluate(devset=testset, num_threads=1, display_progress=True, display_table=5)

Let’s observe how the un-optimized baseline RAG performs on the test set:

evaluate(uncompiled_rag, metric=llm_metric)
  0%|          | 0/20 [00:00<?, ?it/s]

Test Question: How did Alcoa Inc revise its market deficit projection for 2016?
Predicted Answer: Alcoa Inc revised its market deficit projection for 2016 to 1.1 million metric tons.


Average Metric: 3.6 / 1  (360.0):   5%|▌         | 1/20 [00:00<00:09,  1.99it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 3
Overall: 5
Test Question: What significant financial move did ArcelorMittal SA announce?
Predicted Answer: ArcelorMittal SA announced a $3 billion capital increase alongside the sale of a $1 billion stake in Spanish auto-parts maker Gestamp.


Average Metric: 7.4 / 2  (370.0):  10%|█         | 2/20 [00:00<00:08,  2.12it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 4
Overall: 5
Test Question: At what levels did ArcelorMittal SA propose to buy back their bonds, and how was this received?
Predicted Answer: ArcelorMittal SA proposed to buy back their bonds at levels substantially above the levels at which they were trading in the secondary market. This move was received positively by investors.


Average Metric: 11.2 / 3  (373.3):  15%|█▌        | 3/20 [00:01<00:07,  2.28it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 4
Overall: 5
Test Question: How did investors react to ArcelorMittal's bond buyback announcement?
Predicted Answer: Investors reacted positively to ArcelorMittal's bond buyback announcement by sending the 5-year CDS to its tightest level since the March roll.


Average Metric: 15.0 / 4  (375.0):  20%|██        | 4/20 [00:01<00:08,  1.94it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 4
Overall: 5


Average Metric: 18.6 / 5  (372.0):  25%|██▌       | 5/20 [00:02<00:07,  2.11it/s]

Test Question: Who owns and manages OTE (Hellenic Telecommunications Organisation SA)?
Predicted Answer: OTE (Hellenic Telecommunications Organisation SA) is owned and managed by Germany's DT (Deutsche Telekom AG).
Faithful: 5
Detail: 3
Overall: 5


Average Metric: 22.6 / 6  (376.7):  30%|███       | 6/20 [00:02<00:06,  2.31it/s]

Test Question: What event influenced investor sentiment positively despite OTE's earnings?
Predicted Answer: The positive tone at the Eurogroup meeting, where debt relief options for Greece were discussed earlier than expected, influenced investor sentiment positively despite OTE's earnings.
Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5


Average Metric: 26.6 / 7  (380.0):  35%|███▌      | 7/20 [00:03<00:05,  2.48it/s]

Test Question: How did the positive developments at the Eurogroup meeting affect OTE’s financial market indicators?
Predicted Answer: The positive developments at the Eurogroup meeting caused OTE's 5 year risk premium to tighten by 35bps to 431bps.
Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5


Average Metric: 30.200000000000003 / 8  (377.5):  40%|████      | 8/20 [00:03<00:05,  2.24it/s]

Test Question: What allegations are connected to the investigation surrounding Ohio House Bill 6?
Predicted Answer: The context provided does not mention any allegations connected to the investigation surrounding Ohio House Bill 6.
Faithful: 5
Detail: 3
Overall: 5


Average Metric: 33.6 / 9  (373.3):  45%|████▌     | 9/20 [00:03<00:04,  2.37it/s]

Test Question: What were the consequences for FirstEnergy's leadership following the federal corruption scandal?
Predicted Answer: The consequences for FirstEnergy's leadership following a federal corruption scandal are not mentioned in the context.
Faithful: 5
Detail: 2
Overall: 5


Average Metric: 33.6 / 10  (336.0):  50%|█████     | 10/20 [00:04<00:04,  2.48it/s]

Test Question: What financial operations were highlighted for FirstEnergy in 2019?
Predicted Answer: The financial operations highlighted for FirstEnergy in 2019 were not mentioned in the provided context.
Faithful: No
Detail: 1
Overall: 5
Error for example in dev set:          could not convert string to float: 'No'
Test Question: How did the market react to Novafives' third-quarter performance and outlook?
Predicted Answer: The market reacted negatively to Novafives' third-quarter performance and outlook, with their bonds being punished and indicated approximately 6pts lower on the day.


Average Metric: 37.6 / 11  (341.8):  55%|█████▌    | 11/20 [00:16<00:35,  3.92s/it]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: What specific issues did Novafives report in their third-quarter results?
Predicted Answer: Novafives reported weak third-quarter results, with the Ebitda margin guidance for 2018 revised down to 5% and the covenant net leverage increasing to 5.8 times.


Average Metric: 41.6 / 12  (346.7):  60%|██████    | 12/20 [00:29<00:54,  6.76s/it]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: What financial action did Vue International (VUECIN) take as December approaches?
Predicted Answer: Vue International (VUECIN) decided to issue a 7-year facility consisting of two tranches, one in Euro and one in GBP, to finance the acquisition of Cinestar, new site capital expenditures, and to refinance existing debt.


Average Metric: 45.6 / 13  (350.8):  65%|██████▌   | 13/20 [00:41<00:58,  8.39s/it]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: What are the intended uses of the proceeds from Vue International's new term loan?
Predicted Answer: The intended uses of the proceeds from Vue International's new term loan are to finance the acquisition of Cinestar, new site capital expenditures, and to refinance existing debt.


Average Metric: 49.6 / 14  (354.3):  70%|███████   | 14/20 [00:53<00:57,  9.54s/it]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: What will happen to VUECIN’s existing debt instruments as a result of the new term loan?
Predicted Answer: VUECIN's existing debt instruments will be entirely taken out and replaced by the proceeds from the new term loan.


Average Metric: 53.2 / 15  (354.7):  75%|███████▌  | 15/20 [01:08<00:55, 11.03s/it]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 3
Overall: 5
Test Question: How will the new debt issuance affect the deliverables into VUECIN’s CDS contracts?
Predicted Answer: The new debt issuance by VUECIN will result in only loans being deliverable into CDS contracts, as the existing bonds will be entirely taken out.


Average Metric: 56.800000000000004 / 16  (355.0):  80%|████████  | 16/20 [01:20<00:45, 11.46s/it]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 3
Overall: 5
Test Question: What was the impact on VUECIN’s leverage due to the new financing?
Predicted Answer: The impact on VUECIN’s leverage due to the new financing was that it remained flat at 5.5x.


Average Metric: 60.400000000000006 / 17  (355.3):  85%|████████▌ | 17/20 [01:33<00:35, 11.73s/it]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 3
Overall: 5
Test Question: Why is BATSLN particularly vulnerable to the FDA’s potential regulation on menthol cigarettes?
Predicted Answer: BATSLN is particularly vulnerable to the FDA's potential regulation on menthol cigarettes because it produces Newport, the best-selling brand of menthol cigarettes in the US, and menthol cigarettes represent a significant portion of its profit.


Average Metric: 64.4 / 18  (357.8):  90%|█████████ | 18/20 [01:46<00:24, 12.09s/it]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: How did BATSLN's stock respond to the news of potential FDA restrictions on menthol cigarettes?
Predicted Answer: The news of potential FDA restrictions on menthol cigarettes caused BATSLN's stock to fall by 11%.


Average Metric: 68.0 / 19  (357.9):  95%|█████████▌| 19/20 [01:59<00:12, 12.44s/it]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 3
Overall: 5
Test Question: What other factor has contributed to the increased caution from investors towards BATSLN?
Predicted Answer: The higher leverage of BATSLN since the 2017 merger with RAI has contributed to the increased caution from investors towards the company.


Average Metric: 72.0 / 20  (360.0): 100%|██████████| 20/20 [02:10<00:00,  6.51s/it]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Average Metric: 72.0 / 20  (360.0%)
  question answer llm_metric
0 How did Alcoa Inc revise its market deficit projection for 2016? Alcoa Inc revised its market deficit projection for 2016 to 1.1 million metric tons. 3.6
1 What significant financial move did ArcelorMittal SA announce? ArcelorMittal SA announced a $3 billion capital increase alongside the sale of a $1 billion stake in Spanish auto-parts maker Gestamp. 3.8
2 At what levels did ArcelorMittal SA propose to buy back their bonds, and how was this received? ArcelorMittal SA proposed to buy back their bonds at levels substantially above the levels at which they were trading in the secondary market. This move... 3.8
3 How did investors react to ArcelorMittal's bond buyback announcement? Investors reacted positively to ArcelorMittal's bond buyback announcement by sending the 5-year CDS to its tightest level since the March roll. 3.8
4 Who owns and manages OTE (Hellenic Telecommunications Organisation SA)? OTE (Hellenic Telecommunications Organisation SA) is owned and managed by Germany's DT (Deutsche Telekom AG). 3.6
... 15 more rows not displayed ...
360.0

The first ‘optimized’ RAG using BootstrapFewShot is actually performing worse on the test set:

BootstrapFewShotWithRandomSearch was performing better on the test set. I omitted this model for the sake of brevity since similar to BootstrapFewShot in essence (+ random search).

evaluate(compiled_rag, metric=llm_metric)
  0%|          | 0/20 [00:00<?, ?it/s]

Test Question: How did Alcoa Inc revise its market deficit projection for 2016?
Predicted Answer: Alcoa Inc revised its market deficit projection for 2016 to a 1.1 million metric tons deficit.


Average Metric: 3.6 / 1  (360.0):   5%|▌         | 1/20 [00:00<00:09,  1.93it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 3
Overall: 5


Average Metric: 7.4 / 2  (370.0):  10%|█         | 2/20 [00:00<00:07,  2.28it/s]

Test Question: What significant financial move did ArcelorMittal SA announce?
Predicted Answer: ArcelorMittal SA announced a $3 billion capital increase alongside the sale of a $1 billion stake in Spanish auto-parts maker Gestamp.
Faithful: 5
Detail: 4
Overall: 5


Average Metric: 11.4 / 3  (380.0):  15%|█▌        | 3/20 [00:01<00:07,  2.41it/s]

Test Question: At what levels did ArcelorMittal SA propose to buy back their bonds, and how was this received?
Predicted Answer: ArcelorMittal SA proposed to buy back their bonds at levels substantially above where they were trading in the secondary market, and this was positively received by investors.
Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5


Average Metric: 15.4 / 4  (385.0):  20%|██        | 4/20 [00:01<00:06,  2.51it/s]

Test Question: How did investors react to ArcelorMittal's bond buyback announcement?
Predicted Answer: Investors reacted positively to ArcelorMittal's bond buyback announcement, sending the company's 5-year CDS to its tightest level since the March roll.
Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5


Average Metric: 19.0 / 5  (380.0):  25%|██▌       | 5/20 [00:02<00:05,  2.64it/s]

Test Question: Who owns and manages OTE (Hellenic Telecommunications Organisation SA)?
Predicted Answer: OTE (Hellenic Telecommunications Organisation SA) is owned and managed by Germany's DT (Deutsche Telekom AG).
Faithful: 5
Detail: 3
Overall: 5
Test Question: What event influenced investor sentiment positively despite OTE's earnings?
Predicted Answer: The positive tone at the Eurogroup meeting, discussing debt relief options for Greece, influenced investor sentiment positively despite OTE's earnings.


Average Metric: 22.6 / 6  (376.7):  30%|███       | 6/20 [00:02<00:05,  2.36it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 3
Overall: 5
Test Question: How did the positive developments at the Eurogroup meeting affect OTE’s financial market indicators?
Predicted Answer: The positive developments at the Eurogroup meeting led to OTE’s 5-year risk premium tightening by 35bps to 431bps.


Average Metric: 26.400000000000002 / 7  (377.1):  35%|███▌      | 7/20 [00:02<00:05,  2.47it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 4
Overall: 5
Test Question: What allegations are connected to the investigation surrounding Ohio House Bill 6?
Predicted Answer: The allegations connected to the investigation surrounding Ohio House Bill 6 involve tampering with the slaughter date of poultry being processed at sites that supply retailers including Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Marks & Spencer, Aldi, and Lidl.


Average Metric: 27.6 / 8  (345.0):  40%|████      | 8/20 [00:03<00:04,  2.64it/s]

Faithful: 1
Detail: 3
Overall: 1
Test Question: What were the consequences for FirstEnergy's leadership following the federal corruption scandal?
Predicted Answer: The consequences for FirstEnergy's leadership following the federal corruption scandal were not explicitly mentioned in the provided context.


Average Metric: 27.6 / 9  (306.7):  45%|████▌     | 9/20 [00:03<00:04,  2.58it/s]

Faithful: No
Detail: 2
Overall: 5
Error for example in dev set:          could not convert string to float: 'No'


Average Metric: 29.200000000000003 / 10  (292.0):  50%|█████     | 10/20 [00:04<00:03,  2.54it/s]

Test Question: What financial operations were highlighted for FirstEnergy in 2019?
Predicted Answer: There is no information provided regarding any financial operations highlighted for FirstEnergy in 2019 in the context.
Faithful: 1
Detail: 1
Overall: 5
Test Question: How did the market react to Novafives' third-quarter performance and outlook?
Predicted Answer: The market reacted negatively to Novafives' third-quarter performance and outlook, with their bonds being indicated approximately 6 points lower on the day.


Average Metric: 33.2 / 11  (301.8):  55%|█████▌    | 11/20 [00:15<00:34,  3.89s/it]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: What specific issues did Novafives report in their third-quarter results?
Predicted Answer: Novafives reported weak third-quarter results, an increase in covenant net leverage, and revised Ebitda margin guidance for 2018.


Average Metric: 36.800000000000004 / 12  (306.7):  60%|██████    | 12/20 [00:30<00:58,  7.29s/it]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 3
Overall: 5
Test Question: What financial action did Vue International (VUECIN) take as December approaches?
Predicted Answer: Vue International (VUECIN) decided to issue a 7-year facility consisting of two tranches to finance the acquisition of Cinestar, new site capital expenditures, and to refinance existing debt as December approaches.


Average Metric: 40.800000000000004 / 13  (313.8):  65%|██████▌   | 13/20 [00:43<01:01,  8.85s/it]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: What are the intended uses of the proceeds from Vue International's new term loan?
Predicted Answer: The proceeds from Vue International's new term loan will be used to finance the acquisition of Cinestar, new site capital expenditures, and to refinance existing debt.


Average Metric: 44.800000000000004 / 14  (320.0):  70%|███████   | 14/20 [00:54<00:57,  9.53s/it]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: What will happen to VUECIN’s existing debt instruments as a result of the new term loan?
Predicted Answer: VUECIN's existing debt instruments, including senior secured floating rate notes in Euro and senior secured notes in sterling, will be entirely taken out and refinanced with the proceeds of the new term loan.


Average Metric: 48.800000000000004 / 15  (325.3):  75%|███████▌  | 15/20 [01:08<00:54, 10.87s/it]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: How will the new debt issuance affect the deliverables into VUECIN’s CDS contracts?
Predicted Answer: The new debt issuance will result in only loans being deliverable into VUECIN's CDS contracts.


Average Metric: 52.400000000000006 / 16  (327.5):  80%|████████  | 16/20 [01:21<00:46, 11.56s/it]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 3
Overall: 5
Test Question: What was the impact on VUECIN’s leverage due to the new financing?
Predicted Answer: The new financing did not impact VUECIN's leverage, which is expected to remain flat at 5.5x.


Average Metric: 56.00000000000001 / 17  (329.4):  85%|████████▌ | 17/20 [01:37<00:38, 12.86s/it]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 3
Overall: 5
Test Question: Why is BATSLN particularly vulnerable to the FDA’s potential regulation on menthol cigarettes?
Predicted Answer: BATSLN is particularly vulnerable to the FDA's potential regulation on menthol cigarettes because it produces Newport, the best-selling brand of menthol cigarettes in the US, which represent approximately ¼ of BATSLN's profit.


Average Metric: 60.00000000000001 / 18  (333.3):  90%|█████████ | 18/20 [06:40<03:20, 100.07s/it]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: How did BATSLN's stock respond to the news of potential FDA restrictions on menthol cigarettes?
Predicted Answer: BATSLN's stock fell by 11% after the news of potential FDA restrictions on menthol cigarettes.


Average Metric: 64.0 / 19  (336.8):  95%|█████████▌| 19/20 [06:50<01:12, 72.92s/it] 

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: What other factor has contributed to the increased caution from investors towards BATSLN?
Predicted Answer: The potential restrictions on menthol in cigarettes, impacting BATSLN's production of menthol cigarettes, have contributed to the increased caution from investors towards BATSLN.


Average Metric: 68.0 / 20  (340.0): 100%|██████████| 20/20 [07:03<00:00, 21.16s/it]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Average Metric: 68.0 / 20  (340.0%)
  question answer llm_metric
0 How did Alcoa Inc revise its market deficit projection for 2016? Alcoa Inc revised its market deficit projection for 2016 to a 1.1 million metric tons deficit. 3.6
1 What significant financial move did ArcelorMittal SA announce? ArcelorMittal SA announced a $3 billion capital increase alongside the sale of a $1 billion stake in Spanish auto-parts maker Gestamp. 3.8
2 At what levels did ArcelorMittal SA propose to buy back their bonds, and how was this received? ArcelorMittal SA proposed to buy back their bonds at levels substantially above where they were trading in the secondary market, and this was positively received... 4.0
3 How did investors react to ArcelorMittal's bond buyback announcement? Investors reacted positively to ArcelorMittal's bond buyback announcement, sending the company's 5-year CDS to its tightest level since the March roll. 4.0
4 Who owns and manages OTE (Hellenic Telecommunications Organisation SA)? OTE (Hellenic Telecommunications Organisation SA) is owned and managed by Germany's DT (Deutsche Telekom AG). 3.6
... 15 more rows not displayed ...
340.0

Finally, BayesianSignatureOptimizer helps beat the RAG baseline, but by not much. Cannot really say it is statistically significant…

evaluate(third_compiled_rag, metric=llm_metric)
Average Metric: 4.0 / 1  (400.0):   5%|▌         | 1/20 [00:00<00:07,  2.42it/s]

Test Question: How did Alcoa Inc revise its market deficit projection for 2016?
Predicted Answer: Alcoa Inc revised its market deficit projection for 2016 from 1.2 million metric tons to 1.1 million metric tons as a result of slowing Chinese demand.
Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5


Average Metric: 8.0 / 2  (400.0):  10%|█         | 2/20 [00:00<00:06,  2.60it/s]

Test Question: What significant financial move did ArcelorMittal SA announce?
Predicted Answer: ArcelorMittal SA announced a $3 billion capital increase alongside the sale of a $1 billion stake in Spanish auto-parts maker Gestamp. This move aimed to reduce its debt pile by $4 billion to below $12 billion from the current $15.7 billion. This significant financial move added to the positive momentum in the market and led to a tightening of its 5-year risk premium by 141bps to 836bps.
Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5


Average Metric: 12.0 / 3  (400.0):  15%|█▌        | 3/20 [00:01<00:06,  2.71it/s]

Test Question: At what levels did ArcelorMittal SA propose to buy back their bonds, and how was this received?
Predicted Answer: ArcelorMittal SA proposed to buy back €1 billion of notes maturing in November 2017 and €500 million due in March 2018, as well as offering to buy back $1.5 billion of securities maturing in June 2018. The levels at which ArcelorMittal SA planned to buy their bonds were substantially above the levels at which they were trading in the secondary market. Despite this, investors took the proposal positively, and the 5-year CDS tightened to its tightest level (584bps) since the March roll, allowing ArcelorMittal SA to resume its impressive march tighter since the beginning of the year.
Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5


Average Metric: 16.0 / 4  (400.0):  20%|██        | 4/20 [00:01<00:08,  1.87it/s]

Test Question: How did investors react to ArcelorMittal's bond buyback announcement?
Predicted Answer: Investors reacted positively to ArcelorMittal's bond buyback announcement, sending the 5-year CDS at its tightest level (584bps) since the March roll. This enabled ArcelorMittal to resume its impressive march tighter since the beginning of the year.
Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5


Average Metric: 19.6 / 5  (392.0):  25%|██▌       | 5/20 [00:02<00:06,  2.15it/s]

Test Question: Who owns and manages OTE (Hellenic Telecommunications Organisation SA)?
Predicted Answer: OTE (Hellenic Telecommunications Organisation SA) is 40% owned and managed by Germany's DT (Deutsche Telekom AG).
Faithful: 5
Detail: 3
Overall: 5


Average Metric: 23.200000000000003 / 6  (386.7):  30%|███       | 6/20 [00:02<00:06,  2.26it/s]

Test Question: What event influenced investor sentiment positively despite OTE's earnings?
Predicted Answer: The positive tone at the Eurogroup meeting, where debt relief options for Greece were discussed earlier than expected, influenced investor sentiment positively despite OTE's earnings. This development raised hopes that a conclusion could be reached in May, leading to a 35bps tightening of OTE's 5-year risk premium at 431bps.
Faithful: 4
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: How did the positive developments at the Eurogroup meeting affect OTE’s financial market indicators?
Predicted Answer: The positive tone at the Eurogroup meeting, where debt relief options for Greece were discussed earlier than expected, led to hopes of a conclusion in May. This positive development caused OTE's 5-year risk premium to tighten by 35bps to 431bps.


Average Metric: 27.200000000000003 / 7  (388.6):  35%|███▌      | 7/20 [00:03<00:05,  2.35it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5


Average Metric: 28.800000000000004 / 8  (360.0):  35%|███▌      | 7/20 [00:03<00:05,  2.35it/s]

Test Question: What allegations are connected to the investigation surrounding Ohio House Bill 6?
Predicted Answer: The investigation surrounding Ohio House Bill 6 involves allegations of tampering with the slaughter date of poultry being processed at sites owned by 2 Sisters Food Group (2SFG). These allegations include supplying retailers like Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Marks & Spencer, Aldi, and Lidl with poultry products with tampered slaughter dates. Retailers have launched inquiries and suspended their relationships with the firm until the investigation is concluded.
Faithful: 1
Detail: 5
Overall: 1


Average Metric: 30.600000000000005 / 9  (340.0):  45%|████▌     | 9/20 [00:03<00:04,  2.56it/s]

Test Question: What were the consequences for FirstEnergy's leadership following the federal corruption scandal?
Predicted Answer: The consequences for FirstEnergy's leadership following the federal corruption scandal were not explicitly mentioned in the provided context. The focus was on other companies like Anadarko Petroleum Corporation, General Electric Company, Glencore Plc, Toshiba Corp, and Centrica Plc.
Faithful: 1
Detail: 2
Overall: 5
Test Question: What financial operations were highlighted for FirstEnergy in 2019?
Predicted Answer: The context provided does not mention any financial operations or highlights for FirstEnergy in 2019.


Average Metric: 34.00000000000001 / 10  (340.0):  50%|█████     | 10/20 [00:04<00:04,  2.28it/s]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 2
Overall: 5
Test Question: How did the market react to Novafives' third-quarter performance and outlook?
Predicted Answer: The market reacted negatively to Novafives' weak third-quarter results and revised outlook. The company reported weak third-quarter results, with covenant net leverage increasing to 5.8 times from 4.8 in the second quarter. Additionally, the management revised down the Ebitda margin guidance for 2018 to 5%, causing the company's bonds to be punished and indicated approximately 6 points lower on the day. This negative reaction highlighted the challenges Novafives was facing in the market.


Average Metric: 38.00000000000001 / 11  (345.5):  55%|█████▌    | 11/20 [00:20<00:46,  5.20s/it]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: What specific issues did Novafives report in their third-quarter results?
Predicted Answer: Novafives reported weak third-quarter results, with covenant net leverage increasing from 4.8 times to 5.8 times. The management revised down the Ebitda margin guidance for 2018 to 5%, while maintaining full-year sales at €2 billion. These issues led to a significant decline in the company's bonds, indicating approximately 6 points lower on the day.


Average Metric: 42.00000000000001 / 12  (350.0):  60%|██████    | 12/20 [00:35<01:05,  8.14s/it]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: What financial action did Vue International (VUECIN) take as December approaches?
Predicted Answer: Vue International (VUECIN) announced the issuance of a 7-year facility consisting of two tranches, one in Euro amounting to approximately €600 million and one in GBP amounting to £300 million. The proceeds from this term loan will be used to finance the acquisition of Cinestar, new site capital expenditures, and to refinance existing debt. Additionally, VueCin's existing senior secured floating rate notes in Euro and senior secured notes in sterling will be entirely taken out. This move is expected to keep leverage flat at 5.5x, and as a result, VueCin's 5-year risk premium tightened by 56bps to 296bps.

---


Average Metric: 46.00000000000001 / 13  (353.8):  65%|██████▌   | 13/20 [00:52<01:15, 10.77s/it]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: What are the intended uses of the proceeds from Vue International's new term loan?
Predicted Answer: The proceeds from Vue International's new term loan will be used to finance the acquisition of Cinestar and its new site capital expenditures, as well as to refinance existing debt. The existing senior secured floating rate notes in Euro and senior secured notes in sterling will be entirely taken out.


Average Metric: 50.00000000000001 / 14  (357.1):  70%|███████   | 14/20 [01:04<01:08, 11.38s/it]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: What will happen to VUECIN’s existing debt instruments as a result of the new term loan?
Predicted Answer: VUECIN's existing senior secured floating rate notes in Euro and senior secured notes in sterling will be entirely taken out as a result of the new term loan. This means that only loans will be deliverable into CDS contracts going forward.


Average Metric: 54.00000000000001 / 15  (360.0):  75%|███████▌  | 15/20 [01:15<00:56, 11.29s/it]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: How will the new debt issuance affect the deliverables into VUECIN’s CDS contracts?
Predicted Answer: The new debt issuance by VUECIN will be used to finance the acquisition of Cinestar, new site capital expenditures, and to refinance existing debt. The existing senior secured floating rate notes in Euro and senior secured notes in sterling will be entirely taken out, meaning that only loans will be deliverable into CDS contracts going forward.


Average Metric: 58.00000000000001 / 16  (362.5):  80%|████████  | 16/20 [01:31<00:50, 12.73s/it]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: What was the impact on VUECIN’s leverage due to the new financing?
Predicted Answer: The impact on VUECIN's leverage due to the new financing is expected to be flat at 5.5x.


Average Metric: 61.60000000000001 / 17  (362.4):  85%|████████▌ | 17/20 [01:46<00:39, 13.22s/it]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 3
Overall: 5
Test Question: Why is BATSLN particularly vulnerable to the FDA’s potential regulation on menthol cigarettes?
Predicted Answer: BATSLN is particularly vulnerable to the FDA's potential regulation on menthol cigarettes because it produces Newport, the best-selling brand of menthol cigarettes in the US. Menthol cigarettes represent approximately a quarter of BATSLN's profit, making it the most vulnerable group to any potential regulatory move by the FDA.


Average Metric: 65.60000000000001 / 18  (364.4):  90%|█████████ | 18/20 [01:58<00:25, 12.93s/it]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: How did BATSLN's stock respond to the news of potential FDA restrictions on menthol cigarettes?
Predicted Answer: BATSLN's stock widened by approximately 25bps in response to the news of potential FDA restrictions on menthol cigarettes, as Newport, their best-selling brand in the US, could be affected by the regulatory changes.


Average Metric: 69.60000000000001 / 19  (366.3):  95%|█████████▌| 19/20 [02:13<00:13, 13.62s/it]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Test Question: What other factor has contributed to the increased caution from investors towards BATSLN?
Predicted Answer: The increased caution from investors towards BATSLN is also due to the higher leverage resulting from the 2017 merger with RAI (Reynolds American Inc), which has raised concerns among investors about the company's financial position and risk profile.


Average Metric: 73.60000000000001 / 20  (368.0): 100%|██████████| 20/20 [02:25<00:00,  7.25s/it]

Faithful: 5
Detail: 5
Overall: 5
Average Metric: 73.60000000000001 / 20  (368.0%)
  question answer llm_metric
0 How did Alcoa Inc revise its market deficit projection for 2016? Alcoa Inc revised its market deficit projection for 2016 from 1.2 million metric tons to 1.1 million metric tons as a result of slowing Chinese... 4.0
1 What significant financial move did ArcelorMittal SA announce? ArcelorMittal SA announced a $3 billion capital increase alongside the sale of a $1 billion stake in Spanish auto-parts maker Gestamp. This move aimed to... 4.0
2 At what levels did ArcelorMittal SA propose to buy back their bonds, and how was this received? ArcelorMittal SA proposed to buy back €1 billion of notes maturing in November 2017 and €500 million due in March 2018, as well as offering... 4.0
3 How did investors react to ArcelorMittal's bond buyback announcement? Investors reacted positively to ArcelorMittal's bond buyback announcement, sending the 5-year CDS at its tightest level (584bps) since the March roll. This enabled ArcelorMittal to... 4.0
4 Who owns and manages OTE (Hellenic Telecommunications Organisation SA)? OTE (Hellenic Telecommunications Organisation SA) is 40% owned and managed by Germany's DT (Deutsche Telekom AG). 3.6
... 15 more rows not displayed ...
368.0

Conclusion: DSPy contains very interesting “meta” ideas, and brings back the (train, valid, test) sets paradigm to the design of LLM systems, which otherwise are tuned by ad hoc trials and errors attempts.

As future next steps, I will

  • augment the (train, valid, test) sets;
  • get more familiar with the other available optimizers;
  • build a more complex RAG;
  • implement other DSPy LLM-based systems (sentiment? NER? mapping?).